Odds to win AAC: Expect maximum chaos

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Holy hell, the AAC was fun in 2019.

Three teams had scoring offenses in the top 10 nationally. SMU almost screwed around and slipped into playoff contention ... and then didn't even wind up in its own conference championship game. Houston's quarterback, something of a sneaky dark-horse Heisman candidate, called it quits after four games. Navy won a trillion games a year after going 3-10. East Carolina was one of the worst offenses in the nation to start the season, then averaged 40 points per game over its final four contests.

The best part about it?

This conference could be just as chaotic in 2020.

Odds to win the AAC

Buy - UCF (+125)

I was really hoping to get weird with an early buy on a long shot like South Florida or Tulane, but I don't mind the short price on Central Florida right out of the gate. I've been buying a ton of stock on teams who underachieved last season. The Knights were neither lucky nor unlucky in 2019 - they were a nine-win team during the regular season that played exactly as a nine-win team should - but that type of success with all three losses coming by a combined seven points in a "down" year? I'll take it. I wasn't expecting this to be a buy-low team by any means.

UCF should have the best roster in the AAC by a mile. The Knights have roughly seven starters back on both offense and defense from last year's 10-win squad. They've also been the best recruiting program in the conference, registering a top-two AAC class in each of the last three years.

To top it off, the schedule lines up perfectly. The Knights have home games against Cincinnati and Temple while ducking Memphis and SMU in conference play.

Sell - Cincinnati (+450)

Cincinnati got away with one in 2019, winning 10 games despite playing like an 8.1-win team. The Bearcats were 4-1 in one-score games, with all four wins coming by three points or fewer. It's not to discredit head coach Luke Fickell - he's won 22 games the last two seasons - but Cincinnati was extremely lucky. It's not the type of trend you want to see at such a short price in an open field.

At least the Bearcats look solid in terms of returning production, as both the offense and defense bring back more than half of last year's statistical output. But the other reason I'm reluctant to buy Cincinnati is the schedule - road games at SMU, Central Florida, and Temple are all rough.

Buy - Houston (+1600)

I'm adding Houston, but beware that I'm only doing so because you can find better than 30-1 around the market. At that price, I'm all ears.

The Cougars had a trying first year of the Dana Holgorsen era. The program played Oklahoma and Washington State in the first three weeks of the season. Quarterback D'Eriq King threw in the towel after four games and is now a Miami Hurricane. The defense allowed more than 30 points in eight games. Are you surprised to hear Houston put up four wins?

I can get on board with buying a team in the second year of a new head coaching regime. There also can't be as many off-the-field distractions as there were in 2019.

What I see is a team returning the third-most experience in the country on defense and a top-30 offense. If you do enough searching, you'll find a price in the neighborhood of 33-1 on Houston.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.