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New Year's Day bowls preview: Will SEC teams be motivated?

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New Year's Day bowl games may not hold the significance they did years ago but there are still some intriguing matchups for bettors to choose from. The headliner will pit Alabama against Michigan in a Citrus Bowl battle between two premier programs and high-profile head coaches.

Citrus Bowl - Michigan vs. Alabama (-7, 58)

Will Alabama be motivated to play in the Citrus Bowl after missing out on the College Football Playoff for the first time? We’ll find out when it faces a Michigan team that has struggled against top-ranked opponents under Jim Harbaugh. Michigan boasts the seventh-ranked defense but went 0-3 in games against top-10 foes Wisconsin, Penn State, and Ohio State, being outscored 119-62. Alabama quarterback Mac Jones will make his third start at quarterback for the injured Tua Tagovailoa. Jones has thrown for 610 yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions since replacing the star signal-caller. It's been Alabama's defense, though, that's failed the Crimson Tide this season. They've allowed 94 combined points in its two losses to Auburn and LSU.

The line opened Alabama -7 and hasn't moved off that key number as of Tuesday morning. Michigan is 4-1 against the spread in its last five games, but Alabama has been profitable versus the Big Ten, going 7-1 ATS over its last eight against the conference. If the Crimson Tide come to play, they should win by 14-plus points. Michigan finished the year strong but showed in its loss to Ohio State that it still lacks the overall talent to compete with elite teams. Motivation is key here but expect Nick Saban to keep his team focused after dropping the season finale to rival Auburn. The Tide roll.

Outback Bowl - Minnesota vs. Auburn (-7, 53)

Minnesota will try to cap off its magical season with a win over Auburn in the Outback Bowl. Led by an offense that is averaging 34.3 points per game, Minnesota started the campaign 9-0 before dropping two of its last three contests. Auburn went 9-3 on the year despite having one of the toughest schedules and is coming off a win over rival Alabama. Auburn ranks 19th in total defense (323 yards per game) and 13th in scoring defense (18.6 ppg) and has gone to seven straight bowls under head coach Gus Malzhan, although they’re just 2-5 straight up. Minnesota has been a dangerous underdog, going 6-2 ATS the last two seasons when catching points.

These are two of the most profitable teams in the country. Auburn has covered 10 of its last 13 games, while Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in its last nine. The line opened Auburn -8 but early money on the Golden Gophers pushed the number down to -7. The total has moved from 49 to 53 and the over is still worth a look at that number. The over is 5-1 in Minnesota's last six contests, and Auburn's red-hot offense should have its way with the Gophers' defense.

Rose Bowl - Oregon vs. Wisconsin (-3, 51.5)

Two of the country’s top defensive teams face off in this year’s Rose Bowl. Points will likely be hard to come by, as Oregon ranks ninth in scoring defense, allowing 15.7 points per game, and Wisconsin sits 10th, allowing an average of 16.1 points. Wisconsin will lean on running back Jonathan Taylor, who is 91 yards short of recording back-to-back 2,000-yard seasons. He'll be in tough against Oregon, which surrenders only 106.8 yards per game on the ground, ranking 10th in the nation.

Wisconsin opened as a 3-point favorite and the line has yet to move off that number as of Tuesday. Oregon hasn’t fared well as an underdog, going 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games when catching points. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in its last five bowls but the Badgers were underdogs in four of those contests. This should be a tight, low-scoring game. Lean to the under 51.5 in this matchup.

Sugar Bowl - Baylor vs. Georgia (-4.5, 41.5)

Motivation could play a factor in the Sugar Bowl as well. Georgia just missed out on the College Football Playoff for the second straight season. It’s hoping for a better result this time around after falling to Texas 28-21 in last year’s Sugar Bowl when the Bulldogs looked less than thrilled to be there. Georgia’s offense has been inconsistent this season, but its defense ranks second in the country, allowing only 12.5 points per game.

Baylor’s excelled as an underdog under head coach Matt Rhule, covering eight straight games as a 'dog with six outright wins. Baylor is a tough team to blow out because the Bears are well-coached and rarely beat themselves. Rhule's squad doesn't boast elite talent like Georgia but ranks sixth in turnover margin, while the Bulldogs are tied for 62nd.

Baylor covered five straight games to close out the campaign, and sharps are all over the Bears in this matchup. Georgia opened as an 8.5-point favorite but the line moved to -4.5 as of Tuesday morning, with Baylor becoming one of the top sharp plays this bowl season. Now that that the value is gone with Baylor, I'd consider looking at the over 41.5. Both teams are strong defensively but should get over the low total. Baylor played two contests this season with a total lower than 50 points and each went over. The over is also 23-9 in the Bears' last 32 non-conference games.

Thomas Casale is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL, and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.

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