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Best bets to make the CFP: Don't sleep on Oregon

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Remember all off-season when it was Alabama and Clemson vs. the field for the national title? Those were fun times. The College Football Playoff is shaping up to be a chaotic race to the finish line with a plethora of teams deserving to fill the four-team bracket. It's anyone's game now.

With a ton of football still left to decide who fills the four-team bracket, let's go over the odds to make - and miss - the playoff, and how we think each team is currently sitting in regards to their chances.

Team Odds to Make Odds to Miss
Alabama +180 -220
Baylor +800 -1250
Clemson -800 +600
Georgia +200 -240
LSU -1000 +700
Minnesota +800 -1250
Ohio State -550 +425
Oklahoma +310 -370
Oregon +320 -400
Utah +450 -620

Alabama

The only caveat to Alabama losing its first game of the season was that it came at the hands of a team that's 1-10 to make the playoff. We'd probably view the Tide differently if the loss had come in conference play to a middle-of-the-road team, but last week's 46-41 loss to LSU was about as good a defeat as they come. Alabama now needs a convincing win in the Iron Bowl and some help in both the Big 12 and PAC-12, but they're not completely dead in the water.

Baylor

Baylor's still undefeated but the last few weeks haven't inspired hope that the Bears can run the table. After narrow wins over West Virginia and TCU, Baylor gets Oklahoma, Texas, and possibly another date with Oklahoma in the title game. One loss, and the committee's likely jumping ship.

Clemson

*sees Clemson is a 35-point favorite in its alleged toughest conference game this weekend*

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Clemson's in good shape.

Georgia

Georgia could very well be the driving force behind creating mass hysteria. The Bulldogs still have Auburn this week and a spot in the SEC Championship down the road. If they win both, they're in. But if the Bulldogs lose to Auburn and win the SEC, does a two-loss conference champion miss the playoff?

LSU

Last week's win over Alabama was was the exclamation point for LSU's playoff hopes. The Tigers should be favored by 17 or more in their final three regular-season games and the chalk in the conference championship game.

Minnesota

It's only a matter of time until the magic runs out for Minnesota. The Golden Gophers still have dates with Iowa and Wisconsin in the regular season and then Ohio State in the conference championship. It's going to be tough to run the table.

Ohio State

Ohio State not only looks like the best team in the conference but arguably the top squad in the country. Barring disaster, the Buckeyes are ripe for a playoff bid.

Oklahoma

An interesting thought: How would we view Oklahoma if its loss came later in the season, closer to the committee's decision to fill the four seeds? The Sooners need to run the table and likely get some help from the PAC-12 and SEC, particularly the latter. A win in the Big 12 title game and even the slightest chaos in the SEC could propel the Sooners to yet another playoff berth.

Oregon

Whew! Oregon might be the trickiest of the bunch. The Ducks, like Oklahoma, could be on the outside looking in as a one-loss conference champion. And their loss was a good one - a narrow defeat to Auburn back in the opener.

Utah

Utah was a trendy pick to make the playoff during the summer. The Utes could be undefeated had it not been for an injury to running back Zack Moss, which led to their loss to USC on the road in Week 4. They can certainly make a case for the playoff as a one-loss conference champ, but something tells me the committee would have no trouble picking one-loss Alabama or Oklahoma over them.

Best bets

Oregon (+320)

I think if the pieces fall into place elsewhere, the Ducks' resume boosts them into the playoff. Oregon will be favored in all three games to close out the regular season and can pick up one more "good" win at Arizona State next weekend before the conference championship. If Georgia picks up a second loss - preferably in the SEC title game - and Oklahoma doesn't rack up convincing wins over Baylor and in the Big 12 title game, I think Oregon, a conference champ with its lone loss to Auburn, will get the fourth playoff spot over both Alabama and the Sooners.

Alabama (+180)

You hate to say it, but Oregon and Oklahoma might not be safe as one-loss conference champions; the Big Ten knows all about that.

If the committee reverts back to put the four best teams in the country in the playoff, it has to be Alabama. The Tide play in the SEC, have a good loss on their ledger, and can make the case that their starting quarterback wasn't 100% healthy in their lone defeat. They'll need some help, but it's not impossible.

The best-case scenario for the Tide is a Georgia loss - again, preferably in the SEC Championship - an Oklahoma loss somewhere, and Utah - not Oregon - winning the PAC-12. And just remember: In 2017, a one-loss Alabama squad missed the SEC Championship but earned the final spot in the playoff, only to win the whole thing.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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