College football Week 8 underdog plays: Baylor a live dog in Stillwater
Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.
Each week of the college football season, we'll highlight some of the best underdog bets, including ones that could net sizable moneyline profits.
Last week, Texas delighted underdog bettors with a backdoor cover, while Florida and Iowa both failed to score in the final minutes with a shot to cover. Looking forward, here are our best bets for Week 8.
Duke Blue Devils (+3.5) at Virginia Cavaliers
Opening line: Virginia -4
One of the quieter teams through the season's first seven weeks has been Duke, which is 3-1-1 against the spread since an opening loss to Alabama and has covered six of its last seven games as a road 'dog under longtime coach David Cutcliffe.
Virginia boss Bronco Mendenhall has failed to cover four of his last five as a home favorite, and his Cavaliers are coming off a deflating 17-9 defeat at Miami for the team's fourth straight loss against the spread (ATS) this year. The Wahoo's porous offensive line allowed five sacks against a below-average Hurricane pass rush, and it'll have its hands full against Duke's dangerous front.
Additionally, Mendenhall is just 1-5 ATS in his last six games when giving more than three points, This looks like a strong spot to fade Virginia and take the road 'dog, as sharps have done early.
Temple Owls (+7.5) at No. 19 SMU Mustangs
Opening line: SMU -7
SMU has turned heads this year with a 6-0 start, cracking the top 25 this week after last week's 21-point comeback win over Tulsa. But where's the impressive win? A touchdown over Arkansas State? A field goal over TCU? Escaping Tulsa a week ago?
The Mustangs should get tested this week against the Owls, who are tied for the best ATS record (5-0-1) as underdogs since the start of 2018. Rod Carey's group is allowing just 4.38 yards per play, which is 11th best in FBS, and the offense has scored at least 20 points in all six games.
SMU is allowing 28.3 points per game this year and is hoping for a shootout on Saturday, especially it wants to win by more than a touchdown. Expect Temple's defense to step up and potentially even threaten an outright win on the road.
No. 18 Baylor (+3.5) at Oklahoma State
Opening line: Oklahoma State -2.5
Two underdog darlings will face off Saturday when Baylor's Matt Rhule takes on Oklahoma State in Stillwater. The Cowboys are a perfect 5-0 ATS as underdogs since 2018, but the Bears are 7-2 ATS in that span and are getting points despite being ranked higher in the AP Poll, the SP+ rankings, and the ESPN FPI rankings.
Rhule is 31-14 ATS all time as a 'dog and has guided Baylor to an undefeated 6-0 mark straight up behind a top-25 offense and defense, per SP+. Oklahoma State's offense is buzzing, but its defense could falter against a Bears unit averaging 6.98 yards per play, which ranks 11th in the country, eight spots higher than Gundy's group.
There just isn't enough separating Oklahoma State to reward it with more than a field goal at home. Baylor could easily take this one outright for its ninth straight win under Rhule.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.