College football Week 7 underdog plays: Iowa, Florida eye ranked upsets
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Each week of the college football season, we'll highlight some of the best underdog bets, including ones that could net sizable moneyline profits.
Last week, Northwestern took Nebraska to the wire, though Army and Georgia Tech were no match for their visiting favorites. Here are our best bets in a loaded Week 7.
No. 17 Iowa Hawkeyes (+3.5) vs. No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions
Opening line: Penn State -2.5
The Nittany Lions are undefeated this year mostly on the strength of their defense, which is holding opponents to an average of 7.4 points through five games. Iowa mustered just three points in last week's loss to Michigan. So why back the Hawkeyes?
Because Iowa's defense is even better than Penn State's. The Hawkeyes held Michigan to a season-low 10 points last week and limited Iowa State - the 28th-ranked offense in ESPN's SP+ rankings - to 17 points in Week 3. The Nittany Lions have the athletes on offense but have struggled to execute at times, which won't fly against the stifling Hawkeyes.
Since James Franklin took over in 2014, Penn State is 0-15-1 against the spread against Big Ten teams when scoring 21 points or fewer and 22-5-3 ATS otherwise. The under (41.5) is a worthwhile play here, but so is grabbing the points in a classic Big Ten grinder.
No. 7 Florida (+13.5) at No. 5 LSU Tigers
Opening line: LSU -14.5
When this line came out this summer as a Game of the Year, the Gators were catching 4.5 points on the road. Neither team has lost a game since, though the Tigers earned themselves another 10 points in oddsmakers' minds when the game reopened earlier this week before sharps pushed back.
Sure, LSU has looked impressive, but Florida's defense alone should give bettors pause about a runaway result. The Gators' defense held Auburn to 13 points and has now allowed a combined 57 points to six opponents. Based on the spread and total as of Thursday, oddsmakers are expecting Florida to allow roughly 35 points. Doesn't that seem a bit high?
A low-scoring game would lessen the chances of a blowout for the Gators, who have lost by at least 14 points to LSU just twice since 1980 and not since 2011. It's harder to imagine Florida winning outright in Death Valley, but two touchdowns is simply too much value on a defensive-minded road 'dog.
No. 11 Texas (+10.5) vs. No. 6 Oklahoma
Opening line: Oklahoma -10.5
Live 'dogs don't get any more tantalizing than this. Texas enters Saturday as a double-digit underdog for just the third time under Tom Herman, whose Longhorns are 2-0 ATS in those spots and 8-3 ATS getting points in any game. Texas is also 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Oklahoma and 9-5-2 ATS under Herman in revenge spots, which this is after the Sooners' 2018 win.
All the trends in the world won't keep Saturday's game close, but offense will. Oklahoma and Texas feature two of the five best offenses per SP+ and two of the top-seven scoring units in the FBS. It'll be a track meet in Dallas, and that should favor Texas - double-digit 'dogs in games with a total north of 75 are on a 7-3 ATS run since 2017 with four wins in their last five.
Giving more than 10 points to Herman and quarterback Sam Ehlinger feels too steep, even considering Oklahoma's impressive performances against lesser competition. A moneyline bet would net quite a bit here, too, and the volatility of a shootout makes it worth playing.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.