College football Week 4 trend plays
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Last week, we saw Cal cash another "under" and Hawaii go over its total as an underdog.

Here are some trends to keep an eye out for in Week 4.

Colorado at Arizona State

Michigan State had one of the top defenses in the country last season and is right on schedule to finish atop the list in 2019. It also turns out that when you play the Spartans' defense, the next game becomes increasingly easier. Here's how the last nine offenses have fared immediately after playing Michigan State, beginning with the most recent:

  • Western Michigan: 57 points
  • Tulsa: 34 points
  • Nebraska: 28 points
  • Ohio State: 52 points
  • Maryland: 32 points
  • Purdue: 38 points
  • Michigan: 42 points
  • Penn State: 33 points
  • Northwestern: 35 points

That's an average of 39 points per game, with eight of those nine teams going over their team total (Penn State is the outlier here).

Arizona State fits the bill in Week 4. The Sun Devils' offense has been slow out of the gates and limped out of East Lansing with a 10-7 win last Saturday. But with a below-average Colorado defense coming to town and given the recent history of how teams have fared post-Michigan State, perhaps there's a breakthrough looming.

Trend play: Arizona State team total over ~29.5

UL Monroe at Iowa State

After a loss to in-state rival Iowa in Week 3, Iowa State's in a potential hangover spot, but it's a hurdle the team has cleared in the past. The Cyclones have covered all three spreads the week after playing Iowa since Matt Campbell was hired, while all three opponents have also cashed the team total under.

Trend plays: Iowa State -19; UL Monroe team total under ~18.5

Bowling Green at Kent State

Remember those Bowling Green barn burners early last season? The Falcons were one of the best "over" bets in the country, ripping off six in the first seven games of 2018. Since then, it's been nothing but the opposite.

Bowling Green is currently on an 8-0 run to the "under" and has had a tough time contributing on the scoreboard. Over that span, the Falcons have scored more than 28 points just once ... and it came against FCS Morgan State in the 2019 opener.

Trend play: Under 59

Cal at Ole Miss

If it ain't broke, don't fix it. We highlighted Cal as one of the hottest "under" teams in the country prior to Week 3 against North Texas. Despite the total dropping all week and closing three points lower than the opener, the Golden Bears and Mean Green finished comfortably under the total in Cal's 23-17 win. The Pac-12 program is now on a 1-11 run to the "under" overall and is a perfect 8-0 its last eight road games.

Trend play: Under 44

Oklahoma State at Texas

Oklahoma State will likely be an underdog in only three games this season. That's bad news for bettors, because head coach Mike Gundy's been a terrific play in this spot. The Cowboys are currently on an 8-1 run against the spread when getting points. Oklahoma State's certainly had its way against Texas of late, winning each of the last four matchups outright and seven of the last nine.

Trend play: Oklahoma State +5.5

Nebraska at Illinois

Illinois is finally in an underdog role for the first time this Saturday, catching 12 points to Nebraska. This is not a spot where head coach Lovie Smith has fared well. The Fighting Illini are 0-4 ATS over their last four home games as double-digit underdogs, being outscored by a combined 214-38 over that span.

Trend play: Nebraska -12

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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College football Week 4 trend plays
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