CFB Power 5 betting roundtable and top plays

With the start of the college football season just three weeks away, Alex Kolodziej and C Jackson Cowart go over their favorite bets in the Power 5 conferences, including best win total, teams to play and avoid, national title favorite, and dark-horse Heisman candidate.

What's the best win total on the board?

AK: I think Oklahoma State is in a really nice position to succeed. The Pokes brought in Princeton offensive coordinator Sean Gleeson, and all he did was help the Tigers average 47 points in an undefeated season in 2018. Oklahoma State almost always feels slightly disrespected in the betting market, but head coach Mike Gundy's done a solid job of consistently stringing together winning seasons, as evidenced by taking the program to 13 straight bowls entering this year.

The Big 12 is more wide-open than people think, and I believe Oklahoma State at 7 or better deserves a play on the over. I took some 6.5 earlier this summer.

CJC: I'll go the other way with North Carolina, which currently has a 5.5 win total that screams value on the under. It's hard to sell me on bowl eligibility for any team that has a three-way quarterback competition among freshmen, especially when that team has won five games in the past two years combined.

There aren't many people buying Mack Brown stock in Chapel Hill - or in Vegas, for that matter - and count me among the skeptics given his long layoff from coaching and the lackluster farewell to his Texas days. New OC Phil Longo's Air Raid style is an odd fit for UNC's run-first personnel, and the defense appears thin as usual. Fade anything at 4.5 or better.

Which team will be undervalued in the betting market?

AK: One team bettors need to look at this season is Virginia Tech. Head coach Justin Fuente started his tenure off on the right foot, winning 19 games in Blacksburg the first two seasons combined. But with a young defense and shaky offense in 2018, the Hokies went 6-7.

Virtually everybody is back on defense and there's only one way for the offense to go, so I think Virginia Tech is a team you can jump on early this year.

CJC: Though bettors are catching on to Michigan State as kickoff nears, the Spartans are still outside the Big Ten's top-five teams in the futures market. Mark Dantonio's team features an elite defense and returns the eighth-most experienced roster in the country after last year's injury-plagued campaign.

The Spartans should be 5-0 heading into Columbus, but they're currently 13-point underdogs at the Westgate LV SuperBook. Grab Michigan State value while you still can.

Which team will be overvalued in the betting market?

AK: The betting market will treat Oklahoma like a national title contender, and the more I dig into the Sooners, the less I agree. Oklahoma didn't skip a beat when it went from Baker Mayfield to Kyler Murray. The dropoff from Murray to Jalen Hurts, however, is a big one. Hurts will put up stats in Lincoln Riley's offense, but he's a shoddy passer throwing behind a line that brings back just one starter. The Sooners are No. 109 in the nation in returning offensive production. I think decline is imminent in Norman this year.

CJC: Nebraska is arguably the hottest team in the betting market and the hype train is traveling at dangerous speeds. Last year's impressive finish isn't enough to convince me that a back-to-back four-win team is suddenly a national title contender, especially with legitimate holes on defense. Adrian Martinez will be incredibly fun to watch - and that will likely push even more bettors onto the Huskers - but I'll be steering clear of Scott Frost's crew.

Who's the best bet to win the national title?

AK: There's a perception that only, say, seven or eight teams could realistically win the title this season. I believe it; this is arguably the most top-heavy field I can remember.

I truly think we're set up for another Alabama-Clemson classic (though one team I still consider too long is Utah at 50-1). I wouldn't scoff at anyone who places their eggs in those two baskets with matching bets on the powerhouses, which are both at better than 2-1.

CJC: I'm with you that it's Alabama, Clemson, or bust. Betting otherwise is probably a wasted ticket. Still, if you're hunting for value, I'm eyeing two other Pac-12 teams: Washington and Oregon, which are both as long as 50-1 in Vegas and 66-1 in New Jersey.

Some Pac-12 program is going to win a conference title with resume-building wins over a combination of Oregon, Washington, and Utah, setting it up for a College Football Playoff berth. I'm leaning toward Washington here on the back of Jacob Eason and a stellar defense, but Ducks quarterback Justin Herbert could surprise us all with a Heisman-like run to the title game.

Who's a dark horse Heisman candidate?

AK: This is probably the Tua or Trevor award, right? Early in the spring, I listed three quarterbacks I thought were priced a bit too long, but my only prize will be coming up just short. If there's one "dark horse" out there, though, I'd still roll with Shea Patterson of Michigan. I don't necessarily buy the Wolverines as this new, pass-heavy offense with Alabama OC Josh Gattis now calling plays, but I think Patterson's ceiling is extremely high. If his receivers stay healthy and the Wolverines do open the playbook, he's enough of a dual threat to rack up yards through the air and on the ground, and his team could win double-digit games.

If I'm going even longer price-wise, I'd hit Feleipe Franks from Florida at 100-1.

CJC: You nailed it with the Patterson pick. Whether or not you think he'll lead Michigan to the promised land, he definitely fits the profile of a "Heisman breakout" type. And, for what it's worth, bettors in the early market agree.

Herbert would have been my pick if bettors hadn't driven his price up. If Washington has the season I think it's capable of, however, Eason has value at 60-1, especially for someone of his pedigree. Jerry Jeudy at 80-1 is also a nice shot - draft buzz could inflate his Heisman stock come November and December.