5 bracket questions for Selection Sunday

One of the most anticipated - and nerve-wracking - days on the college basketball calendar has arrived with Selection Sunday for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

What: NCAA Tournament Selection Sunday 🍿
When: March 15, 6 p.m. ET 🕕
Where: CBS 📺

The field of 68 will officially be released shortly after the Big Ten title game between Michigan and Purdue.

Here are five questions ahead of the bracket release:

Who gets No. 1 overall?

The No. 1 overall slot was probably Duke's to lose entering conference tournament week, and the Blue Devils avoided a setback - barely - to claim the ACC title. A one-point win over Florida State in the quarterfinals showed Duke isn't quite the infallible outfit it was prior to the injury bug arriving in Durham. Caleb Foster is done for the foreseeable future, but Patrick Ngongba is hopeful to return for NCAA Tournament play. That's likely enough for the committee to keep Duke as the No. 1 overall seed, but if it opts to move the Blue Devils to the second top spot, both Michigan and Arizona are excellent options to jump ahead.

Both teams needed thrilling wins in their conference semifinals, with last-second baskets supplying the margin of victory. Arizona then took care of Houston in the Big 12 title contest, while the Wolverines get Purdue on Sunday for the Big Ten crown. Provided Michigan handles the Boilermakers, there will at least be a debate about whether to shuffle the top three teams in the country. However, it's more than likely Duke ends up in the Washington, D.C., bracket, Michigan takes top spot in the Chicago region, and Arizona stays west to play in the San Jose side.

Who nabs final No. 1 seed?

Three teams had a chance to make a strong case for the final No. 1 seed Saturday. All three flamed out, and we are left sitting where we were two days ago. Florida probably still has the inside track despite its 12-game winning streak coming to an emphatic end with a blowout loss to Vanderbilt. That opened the door for either UConn or Houston to jump up and snatch the slot from the Gators. Both failed, with losses to St. John's and Arizona in the Big East and Big 12 championships, respectively.

There's really no wrong answer here, as all three teams have exceptional résumés, but are a clear step below the trio of Duke, Michigan and Arizona. Houston is likely to stay close to home regardless, either as the 1- or 2-seed in the South Region. ESPN's Joe Lunardi has the Gators topping that region with Houston in the 2-slot. That would leave the Huskies as the top No. 2 team in the bracket with a trip to the Midwest awaiting.

What happens with Miami (OH), Auburn?

Miami (OH) and Auburn aren't the only teams on the bubble this year, but they certainly are the ones getting the most attention over the past week. The RedHawks lost their opening-round game of the MAC Tournament - a result that would end their NCAA tourney hopes in any other season. However, when you enter the conference tournament as just the fifth team since 1985 to start a season 30-0, you would think it provides a little bit of a buffer. An overall record of 31-1 seems like a lock for the tournament, but Miami (OH) has feasted on one of the worst strengths of schedule in the nation. Whether the RedHawks make the field doesn't seem to be in question, but where they are placed is a hot topic. A quick trip to Dayton for the First Four as an 11-seed could be in the cards.

Miami (OH) should be in the field, but Auburn is likely on the outside looking in. The Tigers have played a brutal schedule and have notched a number of good wins - just ask them - but they have also gone 3-9 in their last 12 contests. There's never been an at-large team with 16 losses, so an Auburn bid would make history. We might not even be having a debate involving the Tigers if Bruce Pearl weren't now a prominent member of the media after his storied run at the school. Pearl opted to retire just before the season began, and the program quickly named his son, Steven, as the new coach. The elder Pearl made noise a few weeks ago while politicking on behalf of Auburn at the expense of the RedHawks.

Who should be most nervous?

Outside of the aforementioned Miami (OH) and Auburn, there are four schools that will feel the most nerves during the bracket reveal: Missouri, SMU, Texas, and Oklahoma. Three of those teams are likely to get in with at-large bids, with one left on the outside. Our best guess is the school that felt the need to announce Saturday that the head coach would return next year is the one that won't make it. That would be the Sooners, with the administration opting to bring Porter Moser back in the fold with an increased NIL budget. The decision came on the heels of the Sooners' narrow loss to Arkansas in the SEC tourney quarterfinals Friday.

In advance of the bracket reveal, all four teams will be rooting heavily for VCU to get the victory in the A-10 title game earlier in the day. Should Dayton pull off the upset, the Flyers would nab the auto-bid for the conference and push the Rams back into the at-large pool. That could see them steal one of the slots that this quartet is banking on for a tournament berth.

Using both NET rankings and the KenPom efficiency ratings, it's a very close race between the schools.

Who is already in the field?

There are 31 teams that get the automatic bid for winning their conference, and 26 of those have already been decided heading into Sunday. The final auto-bids will be decided in the afternoon, with the Big Ten, SEC, American, Ivy League, and Atlantic-10 conference all playing their tournament finals. Here's who has clinched their spot in March Madness already.

America East: UMBC
American: South Florida
A-10: VCU
ACC: Duke
Atlantic Sun: Queens (NC)
Big 12: Arizona
Big East: St. John's
Big Sky: Idaho
Big South: High Point
Big Ten: Purdue
Big West: Hawaii
CAA: Hofstra
Conference USA: Kennesaw State
Horizon League: Wright State
Ivy League: Penn
MAC: Akron
MEAC: Howard
MVC: Northern Iowa
Mountain West: Utah State
NEC: Long Island University
Ohio Valley: Tennessee State
Patriot League: Lehigh
SEC: Arkansas
Southern: Furman
Southland: McNeese
SWAC: Prairie View
Summit League: North Dakota State
Sun Belt: Troy
WCC: Gonzaga
WAC: Cal Baptist