Now more than ever, the transfer portal can make or break a team's season in college basketball. While five-star freshmen and long-tenured seniors can be the backbone of a roster, a program will struggle to truly compete for a national championship if it doesn't nail the sport's "free agency" period.
With that said, we take a look at a handful of programs that have either capitalized on their early transfer additions or have faltered in integrating new talent, and we'll consider what that could mean for those squads moving into the season's second stage.
Winner: Michigan
By far the most dominant team to grace the court through a month-and-a-half of play, Michigan's utter domination has mainly come from the transfer portal. Four of the squad's five starters suited up for different schools last season, and each has made an impact in their own way.
Many initially did a double-take when Wolverines head coach Dusty May chose to pick up two true big men in the portal, adding Illinois ace defender Morez Johnson and 7-foot-3 Swiss Army knife Aday Mara from UCLA. The skeptics only grew louder when May revealed he would pair the two non-shooters alongside forward Yaxel Lendeborg, another prized transfer from UAB.
While the trio has combined to make just 18 threes this campaign, their size, passing, and defense have more than compensated. Michigan is a plus-43 in the 57 minutes all three have shared the floor, and May has the freedom to stagger them throughout a contest to throw a handful of different looks at opponents.
Early on, the decision appears brilliant, with Michigan soaring to the top of the list of national title contenders after a ridiculous run of four consecutive power conference victories by at least 28 points. Shooting remains a long-term question, but the Wolverines are in the top 100 from deep at 36%.
Loser: Florida
Soon after Florida won the national championship in April, a harsh reality sank in for head coach Todd Golden: he'd need to replace Final Four MVP Walter Clayton, two-guard Alijah Martin, and wing Will Richard from the starting five. To address the departures, the Gators elevated super-reserve Thomas Haugh, playing him out of position at the three. However, the backcourt was up for grabs.
Florida added Arkansas transfer Boogie Fland and Princeton transfer Xaivian Lee to take the reins. Although both excelled as on-ball playmakers for their teams last season, at least one of them would need to shift to an off-ball role in their new situation. The early results indicate the transition has been a problem.
Florida has started the season a disappointing 5-4, as Lee and Fland have combined to shoot 23-for-106 (21.7%) from deep and 11-for-50 (22%) on off-ball catch-and-shoot attempts. Their struggles have left minimal floor spacing for the Gators' three-headed monster of Haugh, Alex Condon, and Rueben Chinyelu down low, leaving the team heavily reliant on rebounding to stay competitive against upper-tier competition. Only 23 teams in the entire country have a worse 3-point percentage than Florida, and they're all mid-major programs.
There's still plenty of time for Fland and Lee to find their stroke and adjust to life playing on and off the ball. But with one of the shortest rotations among top-tier competitors, the Gators have little margin for error and face a significant uphill battle to defend their March Madness crown unless things change dramatically in SEC play.
Winner: Vanderbilt
A team doesn't always need to overhaul its roster or develop a new superstar to have a successful transfer portal class. That's the case for Vanderbilt, reaching a program-record No. 8 in KenPom after a stellar 9-0 start, with eight of the wins coming by double figures.
While head coach Mark Byington is starting three key returners from last season, he's complemented them with a hyper-efficient combo guard in Oklahoma transfer Duke Miles, a do-it-all glue guy in Cornell transfer AK Okereke, a rim-running big man in North Carolina transfer Jalen Washington, and an on-ball defensive whiz in TCU transfer Frankie Collins.
The best compliment one could give this Commodores group is that everyone has fully bought into their role. Reserve forward Tyler Harris is the team's only player sitting within the top 50 nationally in shot percentage, yet Vanderbilt's entire eight-man rotation averages between 5.3 and 10.4 field goals per contest. Achieving that sort of balance has become increasingly difficult in today's game, but the Commodores have made it a major strength.
Vanderbilt is far from perfect, ranking 261st in height and at risk of getting beaten down physically in the big, bad SEC once conference play rolls around. Still, there's no denying this program is on pace for a historic campaign in Nashville, and the transfer portal will unquestionably be the biggest reason for the Commodores' success.
Loser: Mississippi State
Head coach Chris Jans can largely point to Mississippi State's exceptionally weak transfer portal class as to why the bottom is falling out after three straight NCAA Tournament appearances.
The Bulldogs' most productive transfers are 6-foot-2 Ja'Borri McGhee from UAB and 6-foot-2 Jayden Epps from Georgetown, which would perhaps be fine if the team's returning star guard, Josh Hubbard, wasn't listed at 6-foot-0. As a result, Mississippi State's defensive rating, per KenPom, ranks No. 87 - 41 spots lower than it's ever been under Jans.
However, the frontcourt transfers have been even worse. Rim-running big Quincy Ballard led the NCAA in true shooting percentage last season at Wichita State, but his 2-point efficiency has plummeted from 75% to 59.2% this campaign. Post-up big Brandon Walker from Montana State has been even less efficient and is shooting under 40% from the free-throw line. Arguably, the biggest disappointment is Kansas State transfer Achor Achor, whose playing time has dramatically decreased as he struggles through a significant slump, connecting on just 7-of-32 shots from the floor.
With Mississippi State's tiny backcourt hurting the defense and its inefficient frontcourt hurting the offense, a perfect storm of transfer-portal whiffs has left the team with a 4-5 start. It might be a rough season in Starkville, considering the SEC gauntlet that awaits the Bulldogs in the new year.
Matthew Winick is a college basketball analyst and consultant. You can find his work on X at @matthewwinick.
