While the NCAA Tournament brings some form of madness every season, the amount of bracket-busting in the 2023 edition was staggering.
Five double-digit seeds won in the opening round last year, including absolute stunners in No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson and No. 15 Princeton. The Tigers didn't just stick around for one win, as the Ivy League champs also won the second-round game to make the Sweet 16.
Here are five double-digit seeds that could make noise when the action starts on Thursday.
No. 11 New Mexico
While the betting market isn't a perfect representation of upset ability, New Mexico is notably a 2-point favorite against No. 6 seed Clemson. The Lobos' strength is their backcourt, led by super-senior star Jaelen House, volume scorer Jamal Mashburn Jr., and playmaking maestro Donovan Dent.
The Lobos caught fire in the Mountain West Tournament, knocking off three at-large teams en route to earning the league's auto-bid. They only made 22 total 3-pointers over the four tournament games but dominated the interior by putting pressure on the opposition's defense with aggressive downhill drives and drawing a ton of fouls.
Clemson's experienced backcourt features Joe Girard and Dillon Hunter, who are elite offensively but struggle on the defensive end. They allowed an opposing guard to score at least 20 points in four straight games, three of which were losses. A Round of 32 matchup against Baylor - the Big 12's third-worst defensive unit, according to KenPom - could allow the red-hot Lobos to run all the way to the Sweet 16.
No. 12 McNeese State
The Southland Conference may be in the bottom five nationally, according to KenPom, but McNeese is not your average low-major team. The Cowboys rolled through league play, going 17-1 with 11 double-digit wins. They also boast a 21-point road victory against No. 12 seed UAB and a power conference win against Michigan by 11 in Ann Arbor.
The reason why this team is such an asterisk is that its head coach - former LSU and VCU bench boss Will Wade - will be leading the way after getting cleared by the NCAA following recruiting violations. He brings experience having coached in five NCAA Tournaments, as well as an immensely talented roster led by TCU transfer Shahada Wells.
McNeese's goal is to wear teams down with frenetic transition offense and an extremely physical help-heavy defense that allows the most 3-pointers in the entire country. The Cowboys draw a Gonzaga team with a seven-man rotation that ranks 310th in 3-point rate, and, if they pull off the upset, a Kansas team that sits No. 334 in 3-point rate and played the Big 12 Tournament without two of its best players.
No. 15 Western Kentucky
Typically, 15- and 16-seeds are filled with players with tremendous underdog stories who have worked their entire careers to reach the spotlight of March Madness. Not Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers have four power conference transfers in their rotation, including a former 4-star and 5-star recruit. They also have four key players that have already suited up in the NCAA Tournament for different teams, while first-year head coach Steve Lutz made the Big Dance in back-to-back years at Texas A&M Corpus Christi.
That's all before mentioning Dom McHenry, Western Kentucky's star guard who dropped 25 points in the C-USA title game to vault the Hilltoppers to the Big Dance. It'll be an extremely tall task to beat a No. 2 Marquette that will return all-league guard Tyler Kolek to the lineup, but Western Kentucky's experience will help tremendously. With both teams ranking in the top 10 nationally in tempo and allowing a ton of 3-pointers, this contest has the chance to create an extremely wacky result.
No. 13 Samford
Samford's potential as a bracket-buster comes down to two things - shooting from deep and injuries. Only six teams in the nation shoot the ball better from 3-point range than the Bulldogs, who connect on over 39% of shots from beyond the arc. Three of their key contributors shoot over 40% - Achor Achor, A.J. Staton-McCray, and Jaden Campbell. Add in Kansas' 153rd-ranked 3-point defense, and the makings of an upset are very clear.
The Jayhawks are led by the high-scoring duo of Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr., who, when healthy, form one of the most potent duos in the nation and combine for over 36 points per contest. Unfortunately for Kansas, the two of them are battling injuries entering March Madness. Both players left during the regular-season finale setback to Houston and didn't play in the Big 12 Tournament blowout loss to Cincinnati. While both are expected to play in some capacity versus Samford, it's unlikely either standout will be 100%. If Samford can hit some deep shots early, Kansas could have a difficult time keeping up.
No. 12 Grand Canyon
A 12-seed knocked off a No. 5 in 32 of the last 38 NCAA Tournaments, so it's never a bad idea to include at least one of the former in your bracket. We already mentioned McNeese State as a 12-seed to watch, and Grand Canyon should also catch your eye as a potential sleeper. The Antelopes actually have a fair amount of tournament experience with appearances in both 2021 and 2023. Grand Canyon finds both its offense and defense ranked inside the top 65 by KenPom, and it already knocked off last year's national finalist San Diego State.
No. 5 Saint Mary's is a battle-tested team, but its style of play might just play into Grand Canyon's hands, as the Gaels have the fifth-slowest tempo in the nation. They are the top team in the country in rebound margin, but the Antelopes aren't far behind at No. 35. A game that should be very low in possessions could keep Grand Canyon close with a chance for the upset at the end.
