Mountain West Tournament preview: 7 contenders looking for luck in Las Vegas

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All it takes is one run to wipe out a negative storyline. That's what San Diego State did for the Mountain West last year when it went to the NCAA Tournament final, silencing critics after recent frequent flameouts by members of the nation's least-discussed multi-bid league.

This year's Mountain West Tournament should be its electric self in Las Vegas, but with seven candidates for the Big Dance, there's even more on the line than usual.

We'll use ShotQuality's metrics that assess teams' ability to get and prevent good shots (3-pointers and rim attempts) to help handicap conference tournaments.

Tournament odds

With multi-bid leagues, we'll help clarify what each team is playing for by putting them in one of four categorical statuses. They're either: "Playing for 1-seed," "Securely in," "On the bubble," or "Need to win conference tournament" for an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Early-round bet

Quarterfinal: (5) UNLV vs. (4) San Diego State
Projected spread: San Diego State (-5.5)

Here's the list of teams UNLV lost to in its final 10 games of the season:

1. Nevada

Kevin Kruger (son of Lon) is slowly developing the Runnin' Rebels since T.J. Otzelberger left for Iowa State, building a roster with five players averaging double digits. He'll need options when taking on San Diego State, especially with the season on the line.

UNLV's lack of depth means a run to the title is unlikely, but don't tell the Runnin' Rebels that. Confidence from a recent win at home over the Aztecs should help them keep this one close against a team with the worst 3-point percentage in the conference.

Pick: UNLV (+5.5)

Late-round matchup to target

Quarterfinal: (7) Colorado State vs. (2) Nevada
Projected spread: Nevada (-2)

Our late-round bet happens in the same round as our early-round bet, but it counts because we're making the minor assumption that 15-point favorite Colorado State gets through its first-round matchup with San Jose State, setting up a quarterfinal with Nevada. The market's been giving teams with a rest advantage two points worth of credit in their point spreads this postseason, but that would be a mistake here.

The Rams (projected 9-seed) haven't locked up an NCAA berth the way Nevada (projected 5-seed) seems to have. Colorado State is a senior-laden group that can do damage on the inside and also boasts dynamic scorer Isaiah Stevens. Strangely, the 7-seed in the Mountain West has the best ShotQuality metrics on offense and defense.

Needing to win four games in four days hurts the Rams' chances of winning the MWC tournament, but one good win should be enough to have them sleeping easy.

Pick: Colorado State (+2)

Boise State (+525)

From a market perspective, we're headed for more than our fair share of pick'em games in Las Vegas. San Diego State is valued as two points better than the other five NCAA hopefuls, but knowing it's bound for the tournament, will it be desperate enough to win three tough games in three days? We'll steer clear of the Aztecs' half of the bracket, featuring regular-season champion Utah State and local troublemakers UNLV.

Boise State is slotted into an 8-9 game in the NCAA Tournament by ESPN's Joe Lunardi, but a potential quarterfinal loss may make that position precarious, especially with so many Mountain West candidates for Selection Sunday. If the Broncos combine desperation with their good rebounding (best margin in the conference) and shooting (third), they're a good bet at longer odds than other teams they're equal to.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.