Conference tournament previews: Betting the America East, Big Sky, Southland

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Three more tournaments tip off this weekend, but if we're being honest, the winners will likely be cannon fodder as the 15- or 16-seed in the Big Dance. Still, two conferences have teams head and shoulders above their competition.

We'll use ShotQuality's metrics that assess teams' ability to get and prevent good shots (3-pointers and rim attempts) to help handicap conference tournaments.

America East (March 9)

Early-round bet

Quarterfinal: (5) Binghamton @ (4) New Hampshire (-2.5, 147)

Binghamton's adjusted net score is 0.03 points per possession better than New Hampshire's. The Bearcats let one slip in on the road in Durham, eventually losing to the Wildcats in overtime. Had that gone differently, New Hampshire's 14-12 record would've been closer to ShotQuality's 9-17 adjusted mark.

Neither team can shoot a lick, but Binghamton should have a significant advantage on the glass, with its rebounding margin seven boards per game better than New Hampshire's. That's enough to give it a reasonable chance to win as a road underdog.

Pick: Binghamton (+2.5)

Quarterfinal: (8) Albany @ (1) Vermont (-15.5, 146)

Betting on a team to win three games at -275, even if it is America East superpower Vermont, isn't appetizing. Since we're unwilling to fade the Catamounts, we'll bet on their second game instead.

Some notes on Vermont:

• It lost one league game this season - by two points.
• Its 17-1 record matches its 2022 season when it went on to win America East tournament games by 39, 32, and 39 points.
• It went 14-2 in 2022-23, winning conference tournament games by 27, 22, and 13.

During the regular season, three weeks after losing by 22 in Burlington, Albany made 11 of 25 threes at home against the Catamounts and still lost by 14.

Aside from a loss in the 2021 conference tournament and a stunning 2018 defeat to UMBC (which would make history against Virginia a week later), John Becker's group doesn't mess around at home in the postseason.

Pick: Vermont (-15.5)

Big Sky (March 9)

Early-round bet

Quarterfinal: (6) Portland State vs. (3) Montana
Projected line: Montana (-4.5)

The Big Sky quarters provide a two-for-one betting opportunity on favorites of similar stature.

Portland State (71.5 possessions per game) plays at a slightly quicker pace than Montana (67.8). If they meet in the middle at 69 each, the Grizzlies' 0.13 net adjusted points per possession advantage would lead to a 9-point win. Montana can use an advantage in 3-point shooting and rebounding margin to get there.

Pick: Montana (-4.5)

Quarterfinal: (5) Montana State vs. (4) Weber State
Projected line: Weber State (-5)

Weber State has an even wider ShotQuality edge: 0.17 net adjusted points per possession. In a similar situation where the underdog tends to play at a quicker pace (71.2 vs. 67.3), back the favorite. The Wildcats should be better prepared for Montana State's barrage of threes after surrending 13 of them in Bozeman during the regular-season finale.

Pick: Weber State (-5)

Weber State (+300)

A late surge against top Big Sky competition pushed Eastern Washington ahead of Weber State in KenPom ratings and made it the 1-seed for the tournament. Yet ShotQuality has the Wildcats as the Big Sky's best team in creating good shots and forcing opponents into bad ones. Each team won a hotly contested matchup on the other's home court, suggesting a possible semifinal could go either way. With confidence that Weber State will get through the quarters, we'll be happy to have the Wildcats at this price compared to the remaining teams.

Southland Conference (March 10)

Early-round bet

First round: (7) Texas A&M-Commerce vs. (6) Northwestern State
Projected line: Northwestern State (-1.5)

Offensively, these teams are equally inept, but Texas A&M-Commerce holds an advantage in AdjDEF and creates threes and attempts around the rim at a slightly better rate (59th nationally).

Both matchups this season were hotly contested, concluding with a triple-overtime thriller in the regular-season finale that Northwestern State lost. That's a good sign for Commerce since its depth could otherwise be in question after the loss of forward Jerome Brewer. The team can't afford to shoot 4-of-25 from behind the arc like it did in their first matchup in Natchitoches.

Pick: Texas A&M-Commerce ML (+100 or better)

McNeese State (-240)

Like Vermont, Will Wade's McNeese State went 17-1 in-conference. Its lone blemish was a road loss by one possession. According to ShotQuality, the Cowboys are 0.13 net expected points per possession better than the second-best team in their league (Vermont is 0.08 better than UMass-Lowell). Thanks to the linear bracket format of the Southland, McNeese only has to win two games - compared to Vermont's three - to cash as the odds-on favorite.

McNeese State should be no shorter than an 8-point favorite in the championship game, so securing a -240 price now will feel like a deal when it's pushing -400 next Wednesday. The Wildcats are the safest option if you're looking to parlay two champions together.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.