Conference tournament previews: Betting the Sun Belt and Horizon League

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Your father's March Madness started with Selection Sunday, but this generation's mayhem doesn't begin with who gets into the NCAA Tournament. Instead, it begins with how they get in and the wild action of the conference tournaments. With automatic bids up for grabs, schools from the smallest leagues find themselves in the spotlight.

The Sun Belt and Horizon League share something in common - there's no team head and shoulders above the rest. As a result, you can get a little riskier when betting on who will punch their ticket to the Big Dance.

We'll use ShotQuality's metrics that assess teams' ability to get and prevent good shots (3-pointers and rim attempts) to help handicap conference tournaments.

Sun Belt (March 5)

Early-round bet

Second round: (9) Georgia Southern vs. (8) South Alabama
(Projected line: South Alabama -3)

Georgia Southern bounced back from a 0-12 non-conference schedule, got healthier with the return of senior forward Eugene Brown III, and finished as the best 3-point shooting in the Sun Belt's regular season. With an 88% R3 rate, the Eagles fit the profile of an underdog worth backing. Look for Georgia Southern to avenge its lone meeting with South Alabama and even out a discrepancy in ShotQuality.com's luck record.

Pick: Georgia Southern (+3)

Troy (+500)

James Madison and Appalachian State enjoyed early-season wins over powerhouses (Michigan State and Auburn, respectively) that boosted their efficiency ratings. But that doesn't give them a head start in March.

App State's path is tough. It will either face the best or second-best 3-point shooting team in the league in the quarterfinals, and its semifinal matchup would include perennial contenders Louisiana or Arkansas State. So, we'll look to the bottom of the bracket for our play.

Troy didn't get a headlining win to boost its adjusted efficiency metrics, and how it matches up with JMU remains unknown since they didn't meet this season. We like unknowns for our long-shot bets, especially given that Troy beat the top-seeded Mountaineers in their only matchup.

The Trojans should be just a 4-point underdog to James Madison - a spread that can be covered with an efficient shooting effort, something they're designed to do with the 16th-best R3 rate nationally. If they win and App State stumbles, we may be holding a +500 ticket on the championship game favorite in Pensacola.

Horizon League (March 5)

Early-round bet

Second round: (5) Northern Kentucky @ (4) Wright State
(Projected line: Wright State -5)

Separated by an hour's drive and the state border that is the Ohio River, Northern Kentucky and Wright State have been battling atop the Horizon League for years. Call it a hunch, but, even with the Raiders' home-court advantage, the league's best rivalry will come down to a late shot.

In Saturday's regular-season finale, the Raiders shot 44% from three and 54% overall in this exact matchup and only managed to win by six. Accustomed to the environment and hungry to avenge getting swept by their rivals, the Norse (who made the final in four of the last five years) are live to pull off the upset.

Pick: Northern Kentucky (+5)

Purdue-Fort Wayne (+1300)

We're going deep down the seedings for our pick in the Horizon League. Fort Wayne is an 8-seed in name only, the result of dopey losses to three of the four teams at the bottom of the league. However, with a 4-2 record against the top seeds, and road wins at Oakland, Green Bay, Wright State, and Northern Kentucky, it can play with anybody.

The Mastodons take the most threes in the conference. They roster two 40% shooters and three players in the top five in steals in the league. With a +6.4 turnover margin, a 90% R3 rate, and the second-best AdjDEF in the Horizon, there's a lot to like in Fort Wayne.

The 8-seed actually has a decent path. After what should be an easy first-round win and a day off, it would be just +4 in the quarterfinals at Oakland, who come in somewhat shaky, with a 21-point home loss to Wright and a too-close-for-comfort five-point victory against 1-30 Detroit. Then it's a short drive to Indianapolis for the semis and coin-flip spreads, likely against either Wright State or Youngstown State. There's a better-than-7% chance that Fort Wayne will make a run to the NCAA Tournament.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.