The A-10 and Conference USA are two of the better mid-major conferences in the nation, featuring some top-end squads that could make noise in the Big Dance.
While the A-10's inconsistency leaves it without a likely at-large candidate, C-USA will send Florida Atlantic to March Madness regardless of what happens this week.
With everything to play for in conferences with multiple potential March breakout stars, we highlight our best bets for each portion of the two intriguing brackets.
Atlantic 10 Conference (March 7)
Early-round bet: (9) St. Bonaventure vs. (8) Davidson
Despite Davidson and St. Bonaventure finishing with identical 8-10 conference records on the season, there's a clear divide between how they've each finished the campaign. The Wildcats have rattled off wins in four of their last five, while the Bonnies are losers of six of their last seven. The analytics back this up as well: Davidson possesses the conference's best offense since Jan. 17, while St. Bonaventure sits 14th over that same span, per Bart Torvik.
The Bonnies' offense is even more anemic away from home. They're 3-13 on the road or at a neutral site this season, averaging just 61.1 points in those games. Bart Torvik ranks St. Bonaventure as the country's 310th-best offense away from home versus 169th at home. With Davidson's ability to keep opponents off the foul line, and senior guard Foster Loyer heating back up to end the season, the Wildcats should be able to handle business and a short spread at a neutral site.
Pick: Davidson (-4.5 or better)
Late-round matchup to target: (3) Fordham vs. (2) Dayton
Yes, you read that right: Perennial bottom-feeder Fordham earned the A-10's No. 3 seed. While the Rams are a feel-good story, they are also very flawed in certain areas. They ranked 14th in the conference in effective field-goal percentage, highlighted by a dreadful 28.8% mark from deep. Their main source of offense is the free-throw line, but likely opponent Dayton is best in the A-10 and top-20 nationally in keeping opponents off the stripe.
On the other end, the Flyers will be able to attack inside with star big men DaRon Holmes and Toumani Camara. Both rank inside the top 300 nationally in free-throw rate, while all three of Fordham's big men average over five fouls per 40 minutes. This played out in the Flyers' 82-58 drubbing at Fordham without their two starting guards. Holmes and Camara combined for 47 points, going 17-for-21 from inside the arc and 10-for-13 from the line.
This talented Dayton squad should be able to brush off Fordham and advance to the tournament final with relative ease.
Pick: Dayton (-7.5 or better)
Champ pick: Dayton (+160)
Should Dayton handle Fordham, and VCU beat Saint Louis - something it did twice in the regular season - in a potential semifinal, the A-10 final would feature its two best teams. They split their season series with a combined five-point margin in the two games.
Ultimately, the pathway to points for the Rams is much harder than for the Flyers. VCU is just 4-6 when its effective field-goal percentage is below 49%, and Dayton's defensive eFG% is fifth-best nationwide at 44.6%. Riding Holmes down low, expect Dayton to overcome its inconsistent season and get the job done in Brooklyn.
Conference USA (March 8)
Early-round bet: (9) UTEP vs. (8) Western Kentucky
Setting aside an appalling 8-12 C-USA mark for an uber-talented Western Kentucky team, this group has one last chance to get right, and it starts with a tremendous matchup. UTEP is extremely one-note: It's bottom 10 nationally in offensive turnover rate, 3-point percentage, and free-throw percentage but force tons of takeaways. That strategy is tough against a Hilltoppers squad that generally takes care of the ball and allows opponents to take nearly half their shots from deep with a pressure-less defense built around mammoth 7-foot-5 shot-blocker Jamarion Sharp.
UTEP's two games against Western Kentucky, both losses, marked two of the Miners' five highest 3-point rates of the season. Without the ability to score at the rim or completely stifle the Hilltoppers with defensive pressure, the overwhelming ability and matchup advantages for Western Kentucky should get the job done with a short spread.
Pick: Western Kentucky (-4 or better)
Late-round matchup to target: (2) North Texas vs. (1) Florida Atlantic
North Texas would need to get past a very strong UAB squad to make the championship game, but should it get there, it would give top-seeded Florida Atlantic all it could handle. While the Mean Green dropped both regular-season tilts to the Owls, they led by multiple possessions down the stretch in each one. Plus, Florida Atlantic almost surely has a March Madness at-large bid locked up, while North Texas needs to run through the C-USA Tournament to make it in.
Schematically, North Texas' ability to limit 3-pointers spells trouble for a Florida Atlantic team reliant on the long ball, and the Mean Green's insanely slow pace makes it tough for superior talent to completely break away. Should Grant McCasland and Co. get a third crack at the Owls, expect them to handle their business in their most important game of the year.
Pick: North Texas (pick or better)
Champ Pick: North Texas (+260)
Naturally, picking North Texas to win the tournament's most likely championship matchup means we like the Mean Green with the third-best odds to run through the bracket. Outside of a dismal 36-point display in last year's semifinals, North Texas is 13-6 in postseason games in the McCasland era and has allowed an otherworldly 49.8 points per game in regulation across its last six C-USA Tournament tilts. Mix in a couple of clutch Tylor Perry jumpers, and there should be just enough offense to get the Mean Green back to March Madness.
Matthew Winick is a Basketball News Editor for theScore. Find him on Twitter @matthewwinick.
