Knowledge is power, as we discussed in our overview about how to bet the smaller conference tournaments in college basketball. However, unless you're in the 0.0001 percentile of hoops bettors, you probably don't have a wide knowledge base about the specific goings-on in the ASUN, Sun Belt, Big South, Ohio Valley, Missouri Valley, or even the back half of the West Coast Conference.
Just like any level of any other sport, you should build your handicap of a team around the statistics and metrics you believe to be most important. As we head into March Madness, I'll base my handicaps of largely anonymous teams around their shot quality. Using ShotQuality's adjusted offensive points (AdjOFF), adjusted defensive points (AdjDEF), and "Rim & 3" rate (R3), we'll back teams that excel at getting good shots and limiting their opponents' quality of shots. While we can't predict whether the balls bounce in or out, we can be confident we have some basis for our search for value against the spread.
ASUN (Feb. 27)
Early-round bet: (8) Bellarmine @ (7) North Florida
Bellarmine got national attention in 2022 when it walked into the ASUN and won the conference tournament, only to be reminded that - as part of the first year of its transition to Division I - it was ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. The Knights didn't return much from that stellar squad, and as a result, they're 332nd in AdjOFF, with two freshmen in their top three scorers.
Meanwhile, North Florida is similarly bad defensively, but at least it knows how to score: The Ospreys are 21st nationally in percentage of their shots at the rim and from three. They were full value for their 12-16 record, while Bellarmine were lucky to go 11-17. The Knights couldn't keep up in a 12-point loss on Friday and that should be the case again Monday night.
Pick: North Florida (-4.5)
Late-round matchup to target: (6) North Alabama @ (3) Eastern Kentucky
It's not exactly a late-round matchup since we know this quarterfinal is happening. Eastern Kentucky lost four of its final six games, including a tight overtime loss to North Alabama. The Colonels' mixed results when it comes to offensive efficiency - above-average AdjOFF and below-average AdjDEF - aren't enough to support them being significant favorites.
Pick: North Alabama (+5 or better)
Champ pick: Liberty
Don't be fooled by Kennesaw State's place as the top seed; Liberty remains the class of the conference. It's second in the country in percentage of shots that are threes or at the rim with a 91% rate. I have the Flames rated as seven points better than the Owls on neutral ground, so I would rather wait and hope to bet them around -3.5 in that game than lay their -230 tournament futures price.
Sun Belt (Feb. 28)
Early-round bet: (14) Georgia State vs. (11) Texas State
Georgia State finished 3-14 with seven straight losses, but it's a new season. Strangely, in the newly bloated Sun Belt, the Panthers didn't face Texas State this season, but they did play eight games against the top five teams in the conference. That likely accounts for ShotQuality's record luck score of plus-17.82, which suggests the Panthers are due for some positive regression. Both teams have thoroughly mediocre offensive and defensive shot quality, but Georgia State has a higher percentage of threes and shots at the rim. That efficient, high-variance style makes the underdog Panthers attractive for a game or two.
Pick: Georgia State (+2 or better)
Late-round matchup to target: (4) James Madison vs. (1) Southern Mississippi (Projected line: USM -1)
James Madison and Southern Mississippi have byes into the quarterfinals, but a neutral-site tournament means the Eagles don't get an advantage for having won the regular season. These teams largely mirror each other in AdjOFF and AdjDEF, but JMU has the advantage in R3 rate. The Dukes were best in the Sun Belt at taking 3-pointers or getting to the rim, while USM was 253 places behind (293rd nationally). Assuming they both get past their first opponent, let's take James Madison to send Southern Miss to the NIT.
Pick: James Madison (-1 or better)
Champ pick: James Madison (+380)
The Dukes have the best mix of both offensive and defensive metrics and their path avoids Louisiana - the league's most dangerous 3-point shooting team and its best rebounders - until the final. Facing anyone other than the Ragin' Cajuns in the Sun Belt championship game would be a bonus.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
