NCAA national championship props: How to bet Kansas-North Carolina

As is the case every season, the first Monday night in April sees the road to the national title end in a cavernous dome. That often means shooting problems as the unfamiliar setting causes depth perception issues. However, that wasn't the case for Saturday's games, as both sailed over their prescribed betting total.

The latter Final Four game between Duke and North Carolina was an instant classic that somehow surpassed the hype. It was a stark contrast to the relatively mundane affair between Villanova and Kansas. The difference in effort required to win those games, as well as how both finalists shot the basketball, frames how we're going to bet on Monday night's championship game.

North Carolina vs. Kansas (-4, 152.5)

Under no circumstances are we going to label the Tar Heels' run as some Cinderella magic. The most talented 8-seed since 2014 Kentucky, North Carolina's heart was on full display on Saturday night in vanquishing archrival Duke and its ballyhooed head coach.

The question for tonight's final surrounds whether the Heels can bring that level of intensity and execution again. Beating Duke was an all-time high for the players on the court, much in the same way that Gonzaga peaked with its buzzer-beating victory over UCLA in the Final Four last year. It was difficult for the Bulldogs to bring their A-game two nights later.

On top of that, while Armando Bacot returned after rolling his ankle, even a precautionary MRI isn't a great sign given he'll get his toughest matchup of the tournament against David McCormack. Bacot's matchup with Mark Williams should have been more challenging, but Williams' foul trouble in the first five minutes neutralized him even when he returned at the start of the second half. Can a banged-up Bacot force McCormack into foul trouble, or is it more likely that Bacot - who fouled out Saturday - will be compromised?

If Bacot is even marginally ineffective, that will hurt the North Carolina offense from the inside out. As Hubert Davis discussed after the win over Duke, the Tar Heels' interior presence is what enabled them to get good outside shots. According to ShotQuality, the Tar Heels were relatively fortunate to beat Duke, given that the Blue Devils created better shots.

The Jayhawks had no problem creating quality shots against Villanova, as their win required less all-out effort and wasn't an outlier when it comes to shot creation. Kansas took advantage of the Wildcats' lack of depth, outlasting them in the second half. Only Puff Johnson saw legitimate time off the bench for UNC against Duke, with just nine minutes of action.

Kansas has a handful of subs that can provide an impact, including Remy Martin as a potential game-changer, using his ability to ramp up the pace in the second half.

A total in the low-150s suggests a wider dispersion of scoring and increased possessions. While my numbers make a fair point spread of -4.7, a faster pace should expand that. Bettors are excited by North Carolina's win over Duke, as this line dropped to -4 quickly after it opened. I'll fade a second consecutive amazing performance from the Tar Heels and lay the short price on the Jayhawks.

Pick: Kansas (-4)

Props

Each team has a very capable shutdown defender. The Tar Heels have Leaky Black, who I expect to be deployed against Ochai Agbaji. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks' Jalen Wilson has the length to disturb Brady Manek. Both scorers are lined at 16.5 and are worth consideration for an under bet.

Meanwhile, the Jayhawks will target Manek on the defensive end with Wilson in the post. That should leave a size mismatch with Christian Braun seeing either R.J. Davis or Caleb Love. Whether it's attacking the rim or getting good outside looks, Braun will have every opportunity to clear his point total.

Pick: Braun over 12.5 points

As mentioned, the matchup in the post is going to be a key to the game. And if you believe North Carolina will struggle to make the shots it made against Duke and that McCormack can hold up against a compromised Bacot, then a bet in the rebounds prop market is in order to supplement your bet on the side.

Pick: McCormack over 7.5 rebounds

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.