CBB round-robin ML parlay: NCAA Tournament edition

The underdog moneyline was made for the NCAA Tournament. A big upset is always riveting but never more so than when you've backed the little engine that could - and then they do. History is littered with unknown teams shocking the college basketball world, so very few options are out of the question when it comes to a single-unit bet distributed over five teams that have a chance to make history for their school.

Using the bracket as our guide, we'll pick out the most likely true upsets from five different seed lines to build a round-robin moneyline parlay.

How the round-robin ML parlay works

When there's a big slate of games and we have a handful of bets that include numerous underdogs, it's worth going for a big payout for a fraction of our weekly outlay. We parlay five underdogs together in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we're going to use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for 0.1 units.

If three of five clubs pull off the upset, you'll at least double your money. If four squads win, you'll connect on four separate parlays. If all five win, then we're diving into a pool of gold coins like a young Scrooge McDuck.

Who to play

(9) Marquette (+150) over (8) North Carolina

We're playing the variance of both teams in this game. Neither has shown any consistency this season, and a blowout win is possible for either school.

If you're looking to back North Carolina in this tournament, using the Tar Heels to go on a mini-run by knocking off a better team - like Baylor - is a proper strategy. However, they're favorites in this game, which isn't an ideal position.

Marquette barely showed up to the Big East Tournament, and a pair of high-profile wins for North Carolina is creating an inflated moneyline price for the Golden Eagles.

(12) Indiana (+135) over (5) Saint Mary's

Wyoming seemed to go out of its way to help Indiana win on Tuesday, but that doesn't mean the Hoosiers aren't capable of being a problem in the main bracket. A rough travel circumstance may be deflating their value, but college kids should be able to bring some energy to the biggest games of their lives. Indiana can ride Trayce Jackson-Davis at least one more time, and its defense can disrupt Saint Mary's. The vaunted 12-seed upset doesn't always have to be a directional school from a small conference.

(15) Jacksonville State (+1100) over (2) Auburn

If you're not willing to get a little wild in March Madness, for a half-unit's worth of a bet, what are we doing all this for? When throwing a dart for a big-time upset, it's wise to target a team that's stumbled its way into the Tournament, and Auburn definitely qualifies. The Tigers' advantage is their athleticism, but Jacksonville State has that as well. Away from their friendly home confines, the Tigers better tighten things up at both ends or they could be victims of this year's surprise.

There are plenty of candidates within the group of 15-seeds and 14-seeds that pay out at 10-1 or better, so if you have more faith in Auburn and less faith in Villanova, Texas Tech, Duke, Kentucky, UCLA, or Tennessee, feel free to use their opponents instead. That doesn't sound as appealing, does it?

If this happens, we'll talk about it for years. If it doesn't, we'll forget about the dollars lost by the time the next games tip off Friday.

(11) Iowa State (+160) over (6) LSU

Speaking of variance, LSU is a walking example of "anything is possible." Playing to its full potential would result in an easy win, but Iowa State won't allow anything easy on defense. Offensively, the Cyclones and Izaiah Brockington could do just enough to get past a lost Tigers team.

(14) Colgate (+265) over (3) Wisconsin

Serendipitously, my favorite upset pick of the first round is one of the last games of the first round. Our hands might be sweating come late Friday night. This game could come down to which team makes more shots from beyond the arc, and there's no reason why that couldn't be Colgate.

The Raiders won't be intimidated by Wisconsin's athleticism, as they faced a hyper-athletic Arkansas team last year and hung around in the first half. A more confident group, one that waltzed through the Patriot League, will stun the Badgers and join the ranks of the 14-seeds to score an NCAA Tournament upset.

Here's how the odds look:

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.