This tournament is supposedly wide-open. However, that's not the case until the second weekend. For example, the South Region boasts four potential powerhouses that could match up against each other even before the regional final.
Houston, Tennessee, Villanova, and Arizona have already cut down the conference tournament nets, and each is well aware of how good the other is. So, why don't the South Regional odds reflect that?
Odds to win the South Region
| TEAM | SEED | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 1 | +140 |
| Villanova | 2 | +350 |
| Tennessee | 3 | +400 |
| Houston | 5 | +525 |
| Illinois | 4 | +800 |
| Michigan | 11 | +1600 |
| Ohio State | 7 | +2000 |
| Loyola-Chicago | 10 | +4000 |
| Seton Hall | 8 | +5000 |
| TCU | 9 | +5000 |
| Colorado State | 6 | +8000 |
| UAB | 12 | +8000 |
| Chattanooga | 13 | +10000 |
| Longwood | 14 | +20000 |
| Delaware | 15 | +20000 |
| Wright State | 16 | +20000 |
| Bryant | 16 | +20000 |
The Volunteers are the closest thing to a bet I'd want to see through to the Final Four, especially if you can find a slightly longer price. Otherwise, each of the top four is appropriately priced.
Despite being a No. 11 seed, Michigan's brand recognition has the Wolverines hopping over the Nos. 6-10 seeds on the oddsboard. Clearly, oddsmakers believe they're capable of better play than their 17-14 record suggests. I'm not sold. I have Michigan-Colorado State as a dead-even game, but the line has climbed in favor of the Wolverines. So, I'm waiting to see how many points I can get. Neither team has the upside to make the Sweet 16.
First-round bets to make
(9) TCU vs (8) Seton Hall (-1, 129.5)
I understand why this game is lined close to a pick'em. But on the court, this is a contest between teams that may be headed in different directions. TCU faced Kansas three times in March as part of a stretch of five games in 11 days in four cities, but the Horned Frogs still managed an upset of Texas at the Big 12 Tournament.
Now, they'll have a week to recharge with the good fortune of a late tip Friday night. Meanwhile, Seton Hall was lucky enough to see Georgetown on its schedule twice in its final four games before losing by 10 to UConn in the Big East Tournament.
The Pirates' post-January wins came against Creighton, Xavier, DePaul, and Butler, teams they could outtough. That won't be the case against TCU.
In tournament betting, I want the team with a head coach I trust more. In this matchup, that's Jamie Dixon.
Pick: TCU +1
(10) Loyola-Chicago vs. (7) Ohio State (PK, 131.5)
Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. Last year, Ohio State left the tournament early while Loyola-Chicago found its way into the second weekend. More recently, the Ramblers found their groove just in time for Arch Madness, winning the Missouri Valley Tournament comfortably as a 4-seed.
Ohio State was last seen losing to Penn State after dropping its regular-season finale at home to Michigan without Hunter Dickinson. While E.J. Liddell should be the best player on the court against Loyola-Chicago, a talent discrepancy hasn't stopped the Ramblers in the past. I'll bet on them to show more of the same March success.
Pick: Loyola-Chicago (PK)
Underdog sleeper to target
In a region where you've got an 11-seed favored over a 6-seed, as well as a massively underseeded No. 5 Houston team, there aren't many underdogs to choose from.
This region is most likely going to come down to four teams - Houston, Tennessee, Villanova, and Arizona - that are close to a coin flip to beat each other in any possible matchup. So, for an underdog, we'll turn to a school that's no stranger to making a surprise run: Loyola-Chicago.
Best value bet to win the South Region
As mentioned, we like the Ramblers to get past the Buckeyes. At that point, they'll be approximately 4-point underdogs to Villanova, or +150 on the moneyline. A rolling parlay for Loyola-Chicago to make the Sweet 16 would be just shy of +400. If you can find a market for the Sweet 16, bet the Ramblers +450.
Getting past Ohio State and Villanova is a lot to ask of Loyola-Chicago. With Tennessee and Arizona potentially lurking, that'll make getting out of the region even tougher. But a potential rolling moneyline parlay would actually suggest close to fair value at 40-1, and that's before considering the possibility of a major upset creating an easier path for the Ramblers.
Pick: Loyola-Chicago (+4000 to win region)
Loyola-Chicago (+450 to make the Sweet 16)
Tennessee (if you can get better than +450 to win region)
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
