The midweek slate of college hoops brings a whole new opportunity for wins, which we've had a lot of lately after a 4-0-2 mark to start the week with our best bets.
We take a look at three power conference games and three mid-major tilts worth throwing some money on as the regular season begins its descent.
Syracuse @ Notre Dame (-5.5, 148)
Feb. 23, 7 p.m.
Syracuse has shot below 38% from inside the arc in two of its three games since starting big man Jesse Edwards went down with injury. Interior scoring will be key against a Notre Dame squad that allows over half of its opponents' buckets from 2-point range.
On the other side, the Fighting Irish are shooting nearly 39% from beyond the arc on a high volume in ACC play. They go against a Syracuse zone defense that will enable them to fire away from deep. Expect Notre Dame to get back on track near the top of the conference in a good matchup against the Orange.
Pick: Notre Dame -6.5 or better
Wofford (-1, 146.5) @ VMI
Feb. 23, 7 p.m.
Point per possession stats love VMI, with the Keydets ranking in the 99th percentile or better nationally in half-court offense, spot-up plays, isolation scoring, pick-and-rolls, jump shots, catch-and-shoot attempts, and mid-range jumpers, all per Synergy. Those same metrics also have Wofford's jump-shot defense all the way down in the third percentile.
On the other side of the ball, Wofford depends on efficient interior scoring to jump-start its offense. VMI may not be a great defensive team, but it does possess the Southern Conference's best 2-point defense by percentage. Given all of these numbers, taking the Keydets' juggernaut offense at home is the right side here.
Pick: VMI -1 or better
USC Upstate @ Winthrop (-10, 152)
Feb. 24, 7 p.m.
The last game between USC Upstate and Winthrop featured 170 points in regulation, and the rematch shouldn't be too different. Both teams play at a fast pace and have very different points of emphasis offensively that should put pressure on the opposing defenses.
USC Upstate is one of the best jump-shooting teams in the country, making nearly 41% of its long balls in Big South play. Meanwhile, Winthrop is in the sixth percentile in spot-up attempts and is one of the best post-up teams in the nation. Eagles leading scorer D.J. Burns put up 27 points on the undersized Spartans last time out. All things considered, the over is a good play.
Pick: Over 155 or better
Ohio State @ Illinois (-5, 143)
Feb. 24, 9 p.m.
Illinois is somewhat underrated at 12-4 in the Big Ten, its only home loss coming in double overtime against conference leader Purdue. With a fully healthy rotation, the Fighting Illini should be ready for a matchup against Ohio State.
The Buckeyes are solid perimeter shooters, but they'll have to earn their living inside the arc against an Illinois defense that only allows 28.1% of conference opponents' shots from deep. Should this game become a battle down low, Illini star Kofi Cockburn is likely to win against any matchup. Expect Illinois to rise to the occasion and come away with a multi-possession victory.
Pick: Illinois -6 or better
UCLA (-6, 140) @ Oregon
Feb. 24, 9:30 p.m.
Oregon is now 3-0 against the spread when facing the Pac-12's top three teams. They'll get another chance at home against UCLA, who the Ducks surprisingly beat on the road in January. Oregon is as talented as any conference opponent but has yet to show consistency.
With some poor losses on its resume, Oregon will need to win one or both of its next two games to make a real case for the NCAA Tournament, starting with the Bruins. UCLA has been just sliding by as of late, dealing with injuries and shaky offensive performances. Without diving into the numbers, this Oregon team at home in a must-win game is worth taking as a multiple-possession underdog.
Pick: Oregon +3 or better
UC Irvine @ Cal State Fullerton (-1, 129)
Feb. 24, 10 p.m.
UC Irvine's only home loss all season was to Cal State Fullerton, and now the Anteaters have to travel to face the Titans in a battle of two top Big West teams. Cal State is one of the best teams in the country in free-throw margin and absolutely dominated UC Irvine in that category earlier this season. The Titans made 22 free throws to the Anteaters' two, one of only four discrepancies that large this year.
In the rematch, UC Irvine will have to find a way to make perimeter jumpers to neutralize Cal State Fullerton's downhill attack. However, the Anteaters make less than five threes per game and have only made more than six on the road just once. Expect Cal State Fullerton to produce a similar game plan to its previous win in this matchup and come out victorious once again.
Pick: Cal State Fullerton -3 or better
