Our hot streak continued over the weekend as we went 5-1 on our best bets to move to 17-6 over the last week of action.
Tuesday's and Wednesday's slates aren't packed but still provide solid value amongst some of the country's best conferences.
Syracuse (-3.5, 145) @ Boston College
Feb. 8, 8 p.m.
Syracuse gives up over 50% of its opponents' field goals from long distance, the second-highest mark nationally. The team also allows 70% of its opponents' field goals to be assisted on, most in the country. On the flip side, Boston College ranks either last or second-last in the ACC in 3-point percentage, 3-point frequency, and assists per field goal made. Unsurprisingly, the Eagles rank in the 13th percentile against the zone defense, which Syracuse uses.
Additionally, Boston College's perimeter defense has been suspect all season, while the Orange have hit double-digit 3-pointers in three straight games. All signs point to the road team in this matchup.
Pick: Syracuse -5 or better
Pacific @ USC (-20, 135)
Feb. 8, 10 p.m.
Throw away the numbers and the matchups - this bet is all about motivation. USC just came off a tough loss against first-place Arizona and will be looking forward to a home spot against second-place UCLA. A last-minute non-conference tilt against 278th-ranked Pacific is far from the top of the Trojans' mind.
With USC getting little recent production from its bench, look for the Trojans to emphasize depth in an easy victory. Pacific just has to make a couple of shots and not get dominated on the inside early to hang within the teens. Expect this matchup to play somewhat like Florida State's 13-point victory against 302nd-ranked North Florida last month.
Pick: Pacific +19.5 or better
Saint Mary's (-2.5, 140) @ Santa Clara
Feb. 8, 11 p.m.
Saint Mary's has somehow climbed up all the way to No. 17 in KenPom's rankings despite sitting outside the top 200 in points per game. The Gaels do an excellent job of defending the glass and forcing teams to shoot from inside the arc.
Santa Clara shouldn't worry about either of those strengths; the Broncos don't heavily rely on offensive rebounds or 3-pointers. Instead, they use their elite all-around size to score efficiently around the basket. Santa Clara almost pulled off the upset on the road in this matchup earlier this year, so expect this go-around to stay close, especially with upper-tier WCC positioning on the line.
Pick: Santa Clara +1.5 or better
Wake Forest (-2.5, 152) @ NC State
Feb. 9, 7 p.m.
If you've been paying attention to our best bets, you'll know Wake Forest gets more love than almost any team in the country. Until the market treats the Demon Deacons like a top-25-caliber team, keep backing them.
NC State is dead-last in the ACC in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and has allowed all but one opponent in conference play to score at least one point per possession. With Wake Forest pushing the pace offensively, expect tons of points for the road team.
The Demon Deacons just covered a challenging battle against Florida State despite 26 turnovers, so a contest against an inferior Wolfpack squad should be no different.
Pick: Wake Forest -4.5 or better, Over 154 or better
Texas Tech (-3.5, 126) @ Oklahoma
Feb. 9, 9 p.m.
Texas Tech's been successful this season as a big, aggressive squad that does an incredible job limiting its opponents' paint points. Oklahoma has struggled mightily against the bigger, more aggressive Big 12 teams and is extremely dependant on interior shots offensively.
According to Jared Berson of ESPN Stats & Info, 11 of Texas Tech's opponents this season have hit their season low in paint points against the Red Raiders. With Oklahoma having hit double-digit 3-pointers just once all campaign, it's hard to envision the Sooners scoring many points in this matchup.
On the other end, the Sooners rank second-last in the Big 12 in effective field-goal percentage, leaving them susceptible to Texas Tech's aggression on both ends of the floor. This contest should favor the road team.
Pick: Texas Tech -4 or better
