A blistering 5-1 record Thursday gives us a third-straight positive result and a 12-5 mark over the last week.
Saturday's hefty 150-game slate provides ample opportunity to stay hot, as we analyze six matchups through the logic of early conference play statistics.
Wake Forest @ Florida State (-3, 146.5)
12:00 p.m. ET
The reeling Florida State will be without three rotation players and - more importantly - three upperclassmen for Saturday's matchup against a Wake Forest team it lost to by 22 earlier this season.
The Demon Deacons have quietly been one of the ACC's best teams, winning five of their last six, including four by 16 points or more. This squad loves to score in transition and has the size and athletes to overpower an undermanned Seminoles squad. Wake Forest will likely cough up a handful of turnovers, like the 22 it gave up against Florida State in its last matchup. However, the Seminoles have been poor defensively whenever they don't force takeaways, which should lead to a win for the offensively gifted road team.
Pick: Wake Forest ML (+120 or better)
UNC Greensboro @ Furman (-12, 129.5)
12:00 p.m.
Furman has been on an all-time heater over the last few weeks, ripping off five straight wins by an average of 25 points while making 16.2 3-pointers per contest. The Paladins now take on a UNC Greensboro squad that's allowed 44.5% of its points from beyond the arc, the highest mark in the entire country.
The Spartans play at an extremely slow pace, which should make a double-digit margin tough to come by. However, expecting the Paladins to hit at least 15 threes is a pretty safe bet, and teams that make that mark from distance are 211-35 this season. All but five of those winners have topped at least 75 points, something UNC Greensboro has done only twice in regulation this campaign. With Furman making shots and UNC Greensboro unlikely to match them, this spread should creep into double digits.
Pick: Furman -13 or better
Campbell @ USC Upstate (-2, 138.5)
4:00 p.m.
Campbell and USC Upstate have combined to go 13-5 on overs in Big South play, while both rank in the league's top three in offensive efficiency and bottom five in defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
Looking more in-depth, the Spartans have shot a blistering 44.4% from 3-point range in conference play, while the Camels are last in the league, allowing teams to make 38% of their long balls. On the other side, Campbell is first in conference play at 58.1% from inside the arc, while USC Upstate is near the bottom defensively at 53.1%.
Long story short, both teams have had success on offense and struggle defensively in the area their opponent specializes in the most. All logic points to the over here.
Pick: Over 140 or better
USC @ Arizona (-10.5, 148.5)
5:00 p.m.
Arizona may be third in the nation in points per game, but Wildcats totals have gone under in eight of their last 10 contests. A large reason for that is the team's NCAA-leading 39.5% 2-point defense, buoyed by the second-tallest Division-I team per KenPom. Not to be outdone, USC ranks fourth nationally in 2-point defense and has the country's third-tallest roster.
To score in this game, both squads will need to make threes, though each side hits fewer than eight per game on lower than 35% efficiency. Should the long ball not fall, it won't matter how fast Arizona pushes the pace - the interior defense will help this game stay under the total.
Pick: Under 146.5 or better
Duke (-3, 150.5) @ North Carolina
6:00 p.m.
In ACC play, Duke has done a tremendous job of forcing teams to settle for 2-pointers, ranking first in the conference in fewest 3-point and free-throw attempts per field goal attempted. The Blue Devils are funneling opponents into the paint, where elite shot-blocker Mark Williams roams. North Carolina relies on threes and free throws, sitting in the ACC's top three in both zones. However, its 46.4% shooting from inside the arc ranks 13th.
If Duke's had one major flaw recently, it's been turnovers - but the Tar Heels rank second-last nationally in turnover rate. Expect Duke to limit North Carolina's offense and expose its poor defense to take a road victory over its rival.
Pick: Duke -4 or better
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal State Fullerton (-7, 130.5)
10:00 p.m.
Cal State Bakersfield cannot keep opponents off the free-throw line. The Roadrunners rank third-last nationally in free-throw rate, allowing opponents to shoot almost half as many free throws as field goals. They've also struggled to defend the interior in Big West play, sitting last in 2-point percentage defense.
On the other side, Cal State Fullerton is first in the conference in free-throw attempt rate and percentage, while also taking the majority of its field goals from inside the arc. The Titans' perimeter defense struggles at times, but Cal State Bakersfield has made the fewest 3-pointers of any team in the entire country this season. Simply put, this matchup heavily favors the home side.
Pick: Cal State Fullerton -8 or better
