National championship betting preview: Back Gonzaga to finish strong
No. 1 and No. 2 all campaign, the nation's two best offenses, and a canceled early-season matchup. All signs point to a legendary game between Gonzaga and Baylor in the NCAA Tournament championship.
Let's break down Monday night's season finale from a betting perspective, laying out the side and total we prefer.
No. 1 Baylor vs. No. 1 Gonzaga (-4.5, 159.5)
While it's easy to assume college basketball's two best teams share similar styles, that's far from the truth. Baylor and Gonzaga both boast elite offenses, but the teams score in different ways. Each squad is feisty on defense, but there are different holes on that end for both schools.
The differences are noticeable when looking at personnel. Gonzaga's backcourt is massive - all three of Andrew Nembhard, Joel Ayayi, and Jalen Suggs measure 6-foot-4 or taller - while those in Baylor's backcourt all stand 6-foot-4 or shorter. The Bears' wings and bigs serve as complements to their guards, and in the Bulldogs' frontcourt, Corey Kispert and Drew Timme are among the team's highest-used players.
Baylor's 3-point shooting drives its offense, and the unit boasts the country's leading shooting percentage beyond the arc at 41.2%. The Bears excel in drive-and-kick scenarios when they can use their top-tier quickness off the bounce and find the open shooter on the perimeter. Through a combination of high-end blow-by ability at the guard spot and tremendous shooting, Baylor's shot attempt is either a perimeter jumper or a layup 88.6% of the time.
While Gonzaga's defense is solid overall, it tends to struggle against penetration. The Bulldogs rank in the bottom third nationally when defending against isolation, according to Synergy Sports, and they have a tendency to allow kickouts off drives after getting beat. With shifty Baylor guard Davion Mitchell getting to the hoop at will during the tournament, Gonzaga may not be able to defend much of the Bears' half-court action.
On the other side, Gonzaga's historically great offense would be a challenge for any opponent. Excellent in transition, and in the half court from both the inside and outside, the Bulldogs' offense truly doesn't have a flaw. The team scored 84 points per game in regulation this season, a mark it still reached even in the Bulldogs' only two single-digit results. Above all, though, Gonzaga's superb two-man game between Nembhard and Timme stands out. The program ranks in the 100th percentile in both pick-and-rolls and post-ups when there's a pass involved.
Unfortunately for Baylor, while its elite perimeter defense forces even the best guards to become uncomfortable, the Bears are weak down low. Ranked as only the 215th tallest team in the nation, according to KenPom, Baylor struggles mightily on the offensive glass and against post-ups.
That may be the biggest disadvantage in the game. Not only is Timme one of the country's most efficient post-up players, but Gonzaga's guards will benefit from a size advantage in their individual matchups. That means they'll be able to post up, too.
Lastly, both teams love to run in transition and generate easy looks before the defense is set. Add in the level of offensive efficiency between these two squads, and you'd be hard-pressed to find a good reason to pick the under. This matchup warrants the 159.5 total, even if it's extremely high, especially for a championship game.
In terms of the spread, look for Gonzaga's size and interior presence to overwhelm Baylor inside. While the Bears' shooting will make them competitive and keep the high total within reach, expect the Bulldogs to prevail down the stretch and complete the first undefeated season in college hoops since 1976.
Pick: Gonzaga -4.5, over 159.5