Final Four betting preview: Expect Houston-Baylor to stay tight
Last weekend didn't go quite as planned. A couple of tight losses and Gonzaga running circles around USC didn't help.
Still, we head into the Final Four with a solid 37-15 record and some recommended plays for two of the biggest games of the year.
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 1 Baylor (-5, 135)
Strength battles strength in the first Final Four matchup, with Baylor's high-powered offense squaring off against Houston's tenacious defense. While both squads share many similarities - they both love to crash the offensive boards and shoot threes - there are a couple of key factors worth zeroing in on.
Houston's aggressiveness results in the nation's leading field-goal percentage defense, but the downside is a surplus of free-throw trips for opponents. Teams score 24% of their points against the Cougars from the free-throw line, securing bailouts after challenging offensive possessions. Baylor shouldn't be able to capitalize on that flaw, though. The Bears rank last in the Big 12 with 70.1% shooting from the line, and they get there a mere 16.8 times a game to sit 245th in the country.
Matching Houston's defense is Baylor's top-ranked 3-point percentage offense. The Bears shoot a scorching 41.1% from the land beyond, and all six of their guards are shooting over 38%. When the long ball isn't falling, though, Baylor can get into trouble. The Bears' average margin of victory when they shoot above average from three this season is 22.6, but that margin drops to eight when they shoot below average from deep.
If Houston can keep Baylor's 3-point attack at bay, the Bears' pathway to points becomes more difficult. And with Cougars guard DeJon Jarreau showing an ability to fully shut down opponents' best players, at least one cog in Baylor's star-studded backcourt will likely struggle to score.
Whether Houston has enough offensive firepower to pull off the upset is certainly questionable. But with the line at 5, siding with the Cougars is the safer play. Expect a tight, entertaining contest and a thrilling finish.
Pick: Houston +5
No. 11 UCLA vs. No. 1 Gonzaga (-14, 145.5)
Gonzaga's impressive tear through the entirety of college basketball this season has resulted in an abnormally high line for a Final Four game. But the Bulldogs are that much better than the field, and the gulf between them and UCLA is big enough to warrant such a line. I'll be making a small bet on -14, and you should, too.
Beyond that wager, though, consider taking the over. UCLA has held opponents to 60 points per game in regulation throughout the tournament, so the Bruins are perceived as a defense-first team. That's not the case. UCLA ranks in the 88th percentile nationally in half-court offense and the 23rd percentile in half-court defense, according to Synergy Sports.
The primary reason for the Bruins' low-scoring results is pace. Limiting the game to as few possessions as possible has forced opponents to execute against a set defense, rather than push out in transition. Unfortunately for UCLA, Gonzaga's nonstop movement and quick passing have proven impossible to slow down this season. Even against notoriously slow teams like Virginia and Saint Mary's, the Bulldogs managed to reach upwards of 70 possessions.
Another major reason for UCLA's defensive success has been, frankly, a fair bit of luck. Its opponents are shooting an incredibly poor 24.7% from 3-point range in the tournament after combining to shoot 35.7% in the regular season. The Bruins were actually below-average nationally in 3-point percentage defense before the tournament and allowed six of their previous nine opponents to crack 40% from deep.
All this is to say, don't expect UCLA's newfound defensive dominance to affect Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are almost guaranteed to pick up 80-plus points as they've done in 27 of 30 games. Getting red-hot Johnny Juzang and the rest of the Bruins' perimeter shooting to score in the mid-60s isn't a tall task, either. Expect Gonzaga's pace to burst UCLA's slow tempo and generate enough points to crack the total.
Pick: Over 145.5