The ACC Tournament has had a revolving door of champions in recent years, with six teams winning at least one tournament in the last eight seasons.
Can a long shot make it seven teams in nine years? Or will one of the five teams priced 6-1 or shorter emerge in a crowded field?
Odds to win the ACC Tournament
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Florida State | +220 |
| Virginia | +350 |
| North Carolina | +550 |
| Louisville | +600 |
| Virginia Tech | +600 |
| Duke | +1200 |
| Clemson | +1500 |
| Georgia Tech | +1500 |
| Syracuse | +4000 |
| Pittsburgh | +5000 |
| NC State | +9000 |
| Miami (FL) | +10000 |
| Notre Dame | +10000 |
| Wake Forest | +20000 |
| Boston College | +30000 |
What's at stake?
Even in a down year for the conference, the ACC will likely send seven or eight teams to the NCAA Tournament - depending, in part, on if any steal a bid this week.
Virginia, Florida State, and Clemson have all but punched their ticket to the big dance. Virginia Tech, North Carolina, and Georgia Tech have seemingly played themselves into an at-large spot, while Louisville and Syracuse lead a group of teams that need a strong showing in Greensboro.
Given the relative instability of the conference this year, there's plenty at stake for even the top programs. Virginia and Florida State can earn top-four seeds with a deep run, and UNC and Georgia Tech can add some much-needed quality wins to their respective resumes.
Who's worth betting?
The No. 1 seed has won this tournament eight times since the conference expanded in 2005, but No. 2 Florida State is the best team in the conference and worth the short odds. The Seminoles' rangy, versatile lineup has overpowered teams on offense for much of the year, and their developing defense is already dominant inside.
Don't fall for the short odds for either of the top North Carolina schools. The Tar Heels' guards have been inconsistent, at best, which leaves their offense too reliant on hot shooting nights or lucky bounces at the rim. Duke, meanwhile, was barely a top-50 team before losing star Jalen Johnson, whose absence was evident in the Blue Devils' blowout loss at UNC on Saturday.
Meanwhile, Georgia Tech ranks third in the ACC in KenPom rating but is tied for the seventh-shortest odds in the field. The Yellow Jackets have a 14.5% chance to win the ACC Tournament, according to T-Rank, which would suggest implied odds of +590. You're getting a much better price on a team that owns the conference's longest win streak (six) and has fared well against top teams.
Can a long shot win?
It's hard enough to win four or five games in as many days. It's particularly hard in the ACC Tournament, which has been claimed by a top-three seed in 14 of 15 seasons since the league's 2005 expansion. That means no team has won five games in that span, and only 2017 Duke - which was a No. 5 seed - pulled off four victories in quick succession.
One serious long shot that could overstay its welcome is No. 11 seed Notre Dame, which has threatened the likes of Ohio State and Purdue behind hot shooting nights. The Fighting Irish can light it up from deep and are among the nation's best at protecting the rock and keeping opposing teams off the line - a recipe to win any game.
The problem is they're mostly rotten at everything else. Notre Dame could pull off upsets against vulnerable squads like North Carolina and Virginia Tech, but its weaknesses likely preclude a deeper run at 100-1 odds.
Best bet
Georgia Tech +1500
It's hard enough to prepare for Georgia Tech's defense, which can throw out man-to-man looks or a paralyzing 1-3-1 zone. It's even harder on one day's notice, which will be the case for every Yellow Jacket opponent this week.
Moses Wright has turned up his play of late, averaging 23.5 points and 10 rebounds during Georgia Tech's six-game winning streak. If the 6-foot-9 center can attack the paint with that level of success, Josh Pastner's group is a clear value to claim the school's first ACC Tournament title since 1993.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
