CBB weekly betting preview: Seton Hall, Michigan State looking to stay hot
Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.
Here's a betting breakdown of the week's top college basketball matchups.
Stats and rankings as of Monday, March 2
Texas Tech at Baylor -7.5, 130 (Monday)
After winning 23 straight games, Baylor has lost two of its last three. The Bears are still one of just eight teams that rank top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, although they may have peaked too early. Baylor's been locked into a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament for most of the season, but a home loss to Texas Tech would put that status in serious jeopardy.
Like the Bears, the Red Raiders are skidding; they've lost two straight games and three of five. At 18-11 with matchups remaining against Baylor and Kansas, Texas Tech is currently projected to be an 8-seed in the tournament one year after reaching the championship game. While Chris Beard's team struggles shooting the ball from time to time, the defense is stingy, ranking ninth in efficiency while allowing just 63.2 points per game.
These teams met back on Jan. 7 in Lubbock, where Baylor won 57-52. The home team has dominated this series of late, going 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in the last six meetings. And while this is a matchup between two of the nation's top defensive sides, the over has gone 5-1 in Texas Tech's last six games. Look for that trend to continue on Monday, with the total surpassing 130.
Michigan State at Penn State (Tuesday)
Just a few weeks ago, Michigan State had lost three straight and appeared to be heading for an 8-9 first-round matchup in the NCAA Tournament. But like we've seen many times before, Tom Izzo has his team playing well entering March. The Spartans easily disposed of Maryland on the road Saturday to win their third consecutive contest.
Michigan State has now won three consecutive road games but will face another tough test on Tuesday night in Happy Valley. The Nittany Lions have dropped three of their last four, but they're 14-2 at home this season. To get back on track, Penn State will need to rediscover its offense. The Nittany Lions have averaged just 62 points in their last four games after posting 78 per contest during an eight-game winning streak.
Penn State beat Michigan State 75-70 on the road in their first meeting this season. In that game, Michigan State shot 59% from the field and outrebounded Penn State but also committed 15 turnovers. Expect a different outcome this time around with Michigan State cashing as a short road 'dog.
Villanova at Seton Hall (Wednesday)
Seton Hall can wrap up the No. 1 seed in the Big East Tournament with a home win over Villanova. The Pirates have rebounded from a brief two-game slide to win three straight. Led by star Myles Powell (21.5 ppg), Seton Hall averaged 81 points over those three games and has posted 75 per contest this season.
Jay Wright has Villanova playing its best basketball of season but saw a five-game winning streak end Saturday against red-hot Providence. Before falling to the Friars, Villanova's last loss had been a 70-64 home defeat to Seton Hall. Saddiq Bey scored 22 points in that game, but the Wildcats struggled overall offensively, shooting just 38% from the field.
Seton Hall is coming together at the right time and will be a dangerous team in the NCAA Tournament. Expect the Pirates to keep rolling and cover the projected 4-point spread over Villanova at home.
Thomas Casale is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL, and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.