CBB weekend betting preview: Will another No. 1 fall?
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After a light week that didn't feature many big games, the slate picks up Saturday. Kentucky and Ohio State meet on a neutral court, while newly crowned No. 1 Kansas tries to stay atop the college hoop rankings for longer than a week.
Here's a betting breakdown of Saturday's top matchups.
No. 1 Kansas at No. 18 Villanova
Can Kansas break the jinx? Four No. 1 teams have already lost this season. It's the first time ever that four different top-ranked programs have fallen before the new year. Host Villanova will look to make the Jayhawks the fifth victim. Since losing its opener to Duke, Kansas has rattled off nine straight wins thanks to an offense that averages just under 85 points per game. Villanova counters with its own strong offense, which ranks third in the nation in efficiency and averages more than 80 points. This should be a fast-paced, entertaining affair, with the over worth a look if the total is 150 or lower.
Villanova has faced two tough tests already and failed both, losing to top-10 teams Baylor and Ohio State, though neither of those games was at home. Defense has been an issue for the Wildcats when faced with stronger competition. Villanova has given up an average of 81.5 points in its two losses and ranks 86th in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Kansas has scored 90-plus five times this season.
Kansas is expected to be a two-to-three-point road favorite. Give me the Jayhawks all day at that small number. Villanova has struggled to defend athletic teams and I don't see that changing. The Wildcats will put up a fight at home but Kansas pulls away and covers the short spread.
No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 6 Kentucky
The biggest matchup Saturday is between two top-six teams on a neutral court in Las Vegas. Despite being upset by Minnesota, Ohio State has been one of the most impressive teams during the first two months of the season, ranking in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. It's a deep squad, too, rostering seven different players who are averaging more than 20 minutes per game. However, the Buckeyes could be without guard Dwayne Washington Jr. and his 11.4 points per game for the third straight contest. Washington is dealing with a rib injury and his outside shooting and defense were sorely missed in the loss to the Golden Gophers.
Kentucky is coming off its own upset defeat to Utah on Wednesday as an 11-point favorite. The Wildcats have yet to hit their stride offensively but John Calipari's young team is excelling on the defensive end, allowing just 60.2 points per game. Kentucky will have its hands full, though, when it faces an Ohio State squad that's scored 80 or more points in five games this season.
The biggest problem for Kentucky has been its outside scoring, or lack thereof. The Wildcats are shooting just 27.5% from 3-point range, ranking 326th in the country. It won't get any easier against an Ohio State team that's one of the best in the country at defending the three.
Ohio State is a stellar 9-2 against the spread this season and is expected to be around a five-point favorite. That number is a little higher than I anticipated, so if the spread is five or more, I'll likely pass and look at the under in this matchup between two strong defenses.
Purdue vs. No. 17 Butler
Butler has been one of the early surprises in college basketball and now faces a tough test from in-state rival Purdue. This matchup features two of the stingiest defenses in the country. Butler comes in allowing just 54.5 points per game, while Purdue is giving up 55.8.
With points likely being hard to come by in this game, rebounding could be a deciding factor, and the edge in that department goes to Purdue. Butler is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country (359th) while Purdue ranks a respectable 91st, pulling down an average of 39.1 boards per game. Look for Butler to get out-muscled in the paint by the bigger, stronger Purdue front line. The Bulldogs can't afford to shoot poorly, as Virginia found out earlier this year when the Boilermakers held it to 40 points.
Butler entered the season undervalued and has been profitable for bettors so far, going 8-3 ATS. Bulldogs guard Kamar Baldwin is the key in this matchup. The senior is the team's offensive catalyst and averages 15.7 points per game. I think Purdue wins if it can slow down Baldwin. Lean to the Boilermakers in a neutral-court (Indianapolis) game for which the spread is expected to be around pick.
Thomas Casale is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL, and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.