Entropy increases. Things fall apart.
Almost every free-agent rumor this summer will contain some sort of qualifier about how it's difficult to predict how players and teams will be operating. With the salary cap set to balloon and the trade-off between long-term security now and a potential higher payday later, free agents face difficult decisions. For teams, cap space is effectively more valuable now while it's scarce, but flexibility for 2016 and beyond is important.
Confusing matters even further is that the NBPA is likely to exercise its option to opt out of the collective bargaining agreement in the summer of 2017. While the NBA has remained confident that fate can be avoided - the league and union have both shown a willingness to discuss important matters outside of formal CBA negotiations - public discourse suggests the sides could be headed for a contentious renegotiation of the CBA.
As a result, the players union has long been advising its members to protect themselves against a potential 2017 work stoppage.
Some agents are heeding that advice this summer, according to a report from Zach Lowe of Grantland:
Hanging over all of this is the possibility of a lockout after the 2016-17 season. Anybody who claims to know what will happen is lying to you. I've had power agents tell me they are preparing for a canceled 2017-18 season, which would turn three-year deals signed this summer into two-year contracts. I've had agents and team executives tell me they are optimistic that any work stoppage will be brief and cost no games.
The threat of a work stoppage, however small, serves to confuse the free-agent market even further. Some players, particularly mid-level players, will see it as a threat to their income, and look to maximize their earnings now. The league's bigger stars may see it as an opportunity, as the machinations of maximum contracts could be a major change in a new CBA.
For risk-averse players, securing as much guaranteed money as they can as early as possible will always be the play. For those more amenable to risk, or with a more aggressive approach to their careers and finances in general, a changing CBA could be an impetus to maintain flexibility and speculate on the market with shorter deals.
In other words, just add a potential work stoppage to the litany of reasons this offseason is going to be both interesting and impossible to figure out.
