When the Oklahoma City Thunder responded to Kevin Durant's return from injury by ripping off seven straight wins in December, it seemed only a matter of time before they'd climb into a playoff position and continue their journey toward another postseason run.
However, with less than half a season remaining, the bright lights of an anticipated playoff run are but a faint glimmer.
The hope for Oklahoma City lay in the expectation that, once Durant and Russell Westbrook returned, the team would win at its usual rate.
OKC had won more than 72 percent of its games over the last three seasons. If the team did that beginning with Durant's return on Dec. 2, they'd go 47-18 over the final 65 games, finish 52-30, and coast to the playoffs.
The problem was that expectation assumed perfect health for the Thunder following Durant's return. Instead, KD missed eight more games with ankle and toe injuries.
While the Thunder went 4-4 in those games, they've gone 7-7 in the last 14 games Durant has actually been healthy for.
The team is 14-8 overall with Durant, a .636 winning percentage that would rank seventh in the West. But if they played up to that level over the remaining 35 games, they'd finish with only 45 wins.
The eighth-place Phoenix Suns are currently on pace for about 46.9 wins, with ESPN's Hollinger playoff odds and Basketball Reference's Playoff Probabilities Report pegging them for a 45-win finish.
The Thunder do play 21 of their final 35 games at home, but they also play 20 of 35 against winning teams.
The Suns, meanwhile, appear to have survived the toughest stretch of their schedule. They're 3-3 in the middle of an eight-game run against winning teams, with games against the Memphis Grizzlies and Portland Trail Blazers coming this week.
Then there's Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans, who refuse to fade. The Pelicans sit two games clear of the Thunder and have already beaten OKC twice. If they can find a way to split a huge home-and-home this week, they'll own the tiebreaker.
Between the Suns and Pelicans, the Thunder have to leapfrog two teams while navigating their own challenging schedule. Little evidence outside of a December streak suggests they're up for the challenge.
Thunder apologists will point to last season's Grizzlies, who rebounded from a poor start and a Marc Gasol injury by catching fire upon Gasol's return, climbing to 50 wins and capturing the West's seventh seed.
But the 2013-14 Grizzlies are no longer a comparison for the 2014-15 Thunder.
Memphis went 33-13 after Gasol's return, avoided losing streaks of more than two games from late December through April, climbed above .500 on Jan. 24, and was already in a playoff spot on this date a year ago.
This year's Thunder sit 10th in the West, a game under .500 and four games behind the Suns.
No one questions the talent, but at what point does the hole this team has dug itself outweigh talent and past years' results?
