The NBA Finals are set, but the conference finals losers are still licking their wounds. The dethroned Thunder need to find a way through San Antonio's new kings of the West, while the Cavaliers are still trying to figure out how to take the last step toward playing in June. Here's what's next for each club.
(You can find what's next for the league's four second-round losers here and what's next for the eight first-round losers here.)
Thunder
If you needed a reminder about how fast the NBA moves and how hard it is to repeat in the modern era, just look at the Thunder. Their meteoric rise to become one of the youngest champions in league history had observers assuming a dynastic reign of dominance was in the cards. Just one year later, Oklahoma City has already been usurped by another upstart team in its own conference and might have to start dismantling its championship core due to the second apron.
But just as nothing long term should be assumed after a team's triumph, critics shouldn't rush to bury the recently defeated West finalist. Oklahoma City is still positioned better than any team outside of San Antonio and can delay the second apron's punitive restrictions for at least another year.
In a worst-case cost-cutting scenario where OKC declines team options on all three of Isaiah Hartenstein, Lu Dort, and Kenrich Williams, the Thunder could still go into next season with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell, Jared McCain, Jaylin Williams, Isaiah Joe, and Aaron Wiggins, plus prospects Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber. Add the 12th and 17th picks in this year's draft, and the Thunder would be a tax-paying team, but that incredibly talented and deep roster would still fit under both aprons, with more than $15 million of room below the second apron.
General manager Sam Presti can also get creative. What if the Thunder package both of their top-20 picks to move up in the draft, which could see them add an even better rotation player while spending less than if they used both picks? What if they bring one of Hartenstein or Dort back at a reduced salary?
Regardless of whether they start their second-apron clock next season or make a cost-cutting move to delay it for another year, the Thunder should be back with a vengeance. In Gilgeous-Alexander, they still employ an MVP-caliber player in his prime. A healthier Jalen Williams should remind everyone of his All-NBA talents. Chet Holmgren had a postseason to forget, but he's still an All-Star talent with game-changing defensive abilities. Caruso leads the league's deepest collection of two-way role players. If healthy, the Thunder should sleepwalk to another 60-plus wins.
The most chaotic outcome would be if a stinging loss to the rising Spurs forces Presti out of his comfort zone and causes OKC to break character, leading to the pursuit of a star like Giannis Antetokounmpo. Such a tantalizing scenario feels extremely unlikely, but the Thunder have the assets to blow any other Antetokounmpo suitor out of the water, and they have a need for a Victor Wembanyama-stopper.
The less fascinating but more likely scenario is that while most of the league is figuring out how to catch the Spurs and Knicks, the Thunder understand they don't really have to change anything. They'll have a chance to win again as presently constructed.
Cavaliers
Cleveland's ability to break through in the future hinges on whether the Cavs admit to themselves that they can't win as presently constructed. What they do after that moment of self-awareness is also pretty important.
Already the league's only second-apron team this season, the Cavaliers project as a second-apron club again next year. Even if James Harden declined his $42.3-million team option and walked for nothing in free agency, the Cavs would still be a capped-out team capable of offering free agents only the nontaxpayer-mid-level exception (roughly $15 million). Harden returning to Cleveland on a smaller (but still significant) salary seems like the most logical conclusion. If The Beard is back and the Cavs use the 29th pick in June's draft, they'll be a tax team at the very least, and likely a first- or second-apron team again.
What that means is that any pursuit of LeBron James would see the Cavs limited to offering either the $6-million taxpayer-mid-level exception or a minimum contract worth less than $4 million. Surely James can do better than that in Los Angeles or on the open market, even if he's due for a sizable pay cut from his current $52.6-million salary. Would trading Jarrett Allen to get LeBron a more respectable contract as part of a sign-and-trade with the Lakers get the Cavs over the hump? That would leave Cleveland with James, Harden, All-NBAer Donovan Mitchell, and former Defensive Player of the Year, Evan Mobley.
Mobley might be the elephant in the room. There's no denying the big man's defensive ability, and the 24-year-old has made strides on the offensive end, but he remains an awkward - and at times, uncomfortable - fit on that end of the court. That's a problem, given Mobley is set to earn more than $220 million over the next four years (an average of 31.3% of the salary cap). If the Cavs don't think the on-court value will match the off-court expense, they should cut bait now before the entire league agrees with them.
Would Mobley and draft capital (the Cavs can offer up to two future first-rounders and two more first-round swaps starting this summer) be enough for an asset-starved Bucks team potentially looking to start over after Giannis Antetokounmpo? There would be obvious risks in a move for Antetokounmpo; the Cavs would be going from overpaying a young building block in Mobley to betting on an older, banged-up superstar in Giannis. But given how the high-priced Cavs have repeatedly stalled in the postseason, that might be the kind of risk they have to take to truly give themselves a championship ceiling.
Finally, there are big questions coming for Mitchell, too. The seven-time All-Star is extension-eligible this summer, with only one guaranteed year and a player option remaining on his contract. Mitchell's been one of the best scorers of the last decade and has finished top-seven in MVP voting in three of his four seasons as a Cavalier, but he has some playmaking limitations and has rarely been a playoff riser. A new contract would bring about some certainty for the Cavs, but it might not age well given Mitchell is a one-way guard who's about to turn 30.
The core of a consistently good, fringe contender is still in place. That can't be good enough for Cleveland, though. It feels like the Cavs have one big swing left in them.
Joseph Casciaro is theScore's lead NBA reporter.
