Casino betting is about knowing the odds for your wagers as every roll of the dice, bounce of the roulette ball, or flip of a card carries a static probability. That's not the case in sports betting, and never was it more evident this past weekend in the NBA's octet of first-round series openers.
We can put together hypotheses about how teams may match up, or how different players may perform, but until we see them on the court for 48 minutes - in the very different environs of playoff basketball - we're largely flying blind.
We now have a solid data point, though, so we can look ahead to Monday night's Game 2s and re-evaluate how we think about each series in order to make good bets.
Nets @ 76ers (-9.5, 213.5)
We thought the Nets might be set up for failure against Philadelphia in Game 1. Former Sixer Mikal Bridges was all Brooklyn could have hoped for with an efficient 30-point game, while the Nets shot 55.7% from the field and 44.8% from three. They lost by 20.
Focusing on Joel Embiid and letting Philadelphia bomb away from deep to make 21 of 43 threes was evidently the wrong strategy. But if the alternative is to put less attention on the league's leading scorer - who had 26 points as it was - that seems problematic, especially if they'll also need to shoot at a similar, unsustainably high percentage to stay competitive in Game 2.
Pick: 76ers (-9.5)
Warriors @ Kings (+1, 239.5)
In our first look at the NBA playoffs last week, we were tantalized by the Kings series price of +230, thinking there's a better than 30.3% chance that Sacramento wins the series. That was due to a pair of concerns for the Warriors. The first - whether Andrew Wiggins is ready to reprise his role as the second-most valuable Warrior. The second - can this edition of the Warriors play well on the road?
Wiggins returned with 28 minutes off the bench - six shy of his playoff average last year - but still scored his 17-point average from the 2022 championship run. More importantly, he was a significant defender, adding four blocks to his stat line. The Kings dared him to make 3-pointers, but he could only make one of eight shots from deep. He looks ready for nightly impact but still has room for improvement.
What might end up being the game of the playoffs was high-scoring - an indication the Kings can score on Golden State - but the Warriors led for much more of Game 1 than we expected and seem to have a good defensive plan for Domantas Sabonis and Malik Monk. Only a superhuman De'Aaron Fox performance saved the beam lightning for Sacramento, and it will be hard to ask him for that again.
Two nights later, there's more sustainable signs of success for the defending champs, and now their series price is -150, and an implied win probability of 60% to advance.
Being adaptable is key in sports betting, so while the Kings had better than a 30% chance to win before the series due to questions about Golden State, the Warriors have better than 60% after what we saw in Game 1. If you backed Sacramento at +230, take your prospective winnings and bet back on the Warriors, who looked as good as they have all season, even in a loss.
Pick: Warriors (-1), Warriors win series (-150)
Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
