We struck out on our NBA picks over the weekend, as these playoffs continue to produce shocking results on a nighty basis. Can we get back in the win column with our best bets for Monday?
Celtics @ Nets (-1, 220), 7 p.m. ET
The Nets have been woefully overpriced all season long due to the strength of their star players. But even I was a little surprised to see them dealing as favorites after losing each of the first three games of this series.
Just how unusual is that? In the last 20 years, 76 teams have fallen behind 3-0 in a best-of-seven playoff series. Only 11 of them (14.5%) have been favored to win Game 4, posting a 4-6-1 record against the spread in that spot. In fact, clubs that have won the first three games are 41-29-3 ATS (58.6%) in the fourth contest and have won 50 of those 73 games outright (68.5%).
That's the backdrop for Monday's clash after three games in which the Celtics looked vastly superior defensively while receiving sustained bursts from star scorers Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. With Ben Simmons unlikely to suit up after all, I don't see a ton of reason to expect an inspired performance from a Brooklyn squad that looked defeated after that crushing Game 3 loss.
Pick: Celtics +1
Raptors @ 76ers (-7.5, 209.5), 8 p.m.
The last time these two teams stepped off the court in Philadelphia, the 76ers had just polished off consecutive 20-plus-point victories over the Raptors to take control of this series. But with Toronto stealing Game 4 and Joel Embiid fighting through a torn thumb ligament, what can we expect in Game 5?
It's hard to argue that the injury didn't affect Embiid his last time out. He shot 43.8% on 16 attempts, both among his lowest marks in months. Embiid also tried just one 3-pointer for only the second time since the All-Star break and grabbed fewer than 10 rebounds for the first time in his last 15 games. It was one of his worst performances of the entire season.
If he's not at full strength, that limits the offensive upside for the Sixers, who have particularly relied on the NBA's leading scorer over the past month. The same can be said for Toronto if Fred VanVleet - the team's second-leading scorer (20.3 points per game) during the regular season - is sidelined or otherwise hindered by the hip injury he suffered in Game 4.
The last three games in this series have totaled 209, 205 (overtime), and 212 points, even with some gaudy free-throw numbers aiding those final scores. I'd expect Monday's affair to settle into that lower range, especially with both teams managing injuries to key scorers.
Pick: Under 209.5
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].
