After splitting our pair of NBA picks Thursday, we're 23-16 against the spread heading into the third weekend of the season. Here are our favorite bets:
Pelicans @ Warriors (-9.5, 214)
Nov. 5, 10 p.m. ET
Entering this season, the best version of the Warriors seemed like one led by Stephen Curry and their potent offense. But who saw this defensive start coming? Golden State has held three of its last four opponents under 100 points and is ceding just 97.1 points per 100 possessions, best in the NBA through seven games.
Meanwhile, the Pelicans have looked listless on offense without star Zion Williamson, scoring just 103.3 points per 100 possessions with five games at 100 points or less. New Orleans' defense is too shaky to bet the full game under, but expect a low scoring output from the visitors here.
Pick: Pelicans under 102.5 points
Pacers @ Trail Blazers (-5, 223)
Nov. 5, 10 p.m.
Is this the game that Damian Lillard finally breaks out of his prolonged slump? The Trail Blazers guard is averaging 19.5 points on a career-worst 35.3% shooting and 23.4% from three, and he's been held below 30 points in each of his first eight contests.
Still, the signs are there for a bounce-back performance Friday. He scored a season-high 26 points Wednesday and has been better at home, where he posted his two best shooting performances of the season. He's been better throughout his career at home, shooting higher from the field (44.2%) and from three (37.8%) compared to road games.
The Pacers aren't exactly a daunting matchup, either, ranking 22nd in defensive rating (109.4) and allowing opponents to shoot 37.2% from three - the sixth-highest mark in the league. If Lillard can regain his stroke, Portland can easily cover this number.
Pick: Trail Blazers -5
Jazz @ Heat (TBD)
Nov. 6, 7:30 p.m.
It doesn't get any better than this one early in the season, as the Jazz (+12.9) and Heat (+12.5) rank first and second in net rating, respectively, and both slot into the top four in offense and defensive rating amid 6-2 ATS starts to the season.
Rather than trying to split hairs between these two juggernauts, the smartest play is to back these defenses, which have been the most consistent force for both sides. Miami has held seven of its first eight opponents to 103 points or fewer - including in its only two losses - while Utah has limited five of its first eight foes to 101 points or fewer.
Pick: Under (TBD)
Nets @ Raptors (TBD)
Nov. 7, 3:30 p.m.
Is it too early to believe in what the Raptors are doing? They've won five straight games entering Friday, including two without star rookie Scottie Barnes, who has been the catalyst for their hot start. He should be available Sunday against the Nets, who can't seem to get anything going.
Brooklyn ranks 20th in offensive rating - scoring 2.5 points fewer per 100 possessions than the Raptors - and could struggle to improve upon that if Kevin Durant is guarded by Barnes, who has held his ground against star scorers this season. Toronto ranks sixth in defensive rating (102.4) and net rating (+5.0) and will likely be the underdog here, so take advantage.
Pick: Raptors (TBD)
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].
