Small sample sizes: How real are these 3 players' starts?

The 2019-20 season is young, and as in years past, some unexpected players are turning heads after unexpected red-hot starts.

Of course, it only takes a couple of big games to skew the numbers when the sample size is this small.

Let's evaluate the legitimacy of three notable cases from the early going:

Davis Bertans, the long-range dunker

Even with the 3-point revolution in full swing, no player has averaged 50% 3-point shooting on over five attempts per game for an entire season. Eleven players are currently exceeding both thresholds, and Washington Wizards forward Davis Bertans has been the most successful.

The 6-foot-10 Latvian has connected on 16-of-29 shots from 3-point range, which is 55.2% on 7.3 looks per game. Aside from four shots, all of his looks have been from beyond the arc or at the rim:

That's as analytically oriented a scoring profile as you'll find. But come on, this is preposterous. Bertans' shooting on 3-pointers nearly matches what frontcourt mate Thomas Bryant has shot on twos (56.3% on eight 2-point attempts per game).

And these aren't just regular 3-point shots. Seventeen of his 29 long-range tries have come from further than 26 feet from the hoop. The deeper Bertans stretches into space, the more he opens the floor up for his interior-oriented teammates.

Defenders can't help off him when he can regularly hit shots from four feet behind the arc. Watch the attempt at the 35-second mark:

DeAndre Jordan, the NBA's all-time career leader in effective field goal percentage at 66.9%, has never shot better than a 71.4% eFG in any season of his career. Bertans' eFG is sitting at 78.4%! Lately, allowing him to hoist a trey has been more efficient than when Clippers-era DJ was throwing down lobs from Chris Paul circa 2016-17.

Bertans is great at what he does, even in a league with an increased emphasis on 3-point shooting. He shot 42.9% on 4.4 long-range bids per game with the Spurs last season, placing him in the 97th percentile among bigs, according to Cleaning the Glass.

Still, higher-quantity attempts shouldn't come with increased efficiency, as the opposite is far more likely. Even with Bertans coming off the bench for a team as middling as the Wizards, the hot hand can't be ignored. Defenses will adjust, and Bertans' efficiency will regress to his (well above average) mean.

Verdict: Not real

Devonte' Graham's breakthrough

The top 10 of the assists leaderboard features familiar faces. LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and ... wait, Devonte' Graham? The second-year Hornets guard is averaging 16.4 points and a whopping 7.6 dimes per game despite coming off the bench in each of his five appearances.

A significant portion of Graham's increased assist output stems from his connection with P.J. Washington, according to the NBA's tracking data. The rookie sharpshooter has received 15.5% of Graham's passes, accounting for 28.9% of the latter's dimes.

But Graham's assist numbers are rising due to more than just defenses sagging off Washington on the weak side. He's also shown some solid pick-and-roll timing with the bigs, patiently bending the defense toward him before leading the likes of Cody Zeller and Bismack Biyombo straight to the rim:

That won't last though, at least not to this extent.

Savvy defenses will start respecting Graham's passing ability (and Washington's scoring touch). And when the floor-spacers and rollers aren't quite as open as they've been these first five games, the onus will then be on Graham to adjust and counter.

In any case, Graham makes the Hornets more fun to watch, even if being this productive over a full season is a little too much to ask from a second-year reserve.

Verdict: Real

Josh Okogie and the Timberwolves' bench mob

By broad measures, Minnesota Timberwolves wing Josh Okogie has been the stingiest player on one of the league's stingiest defensive units. Through four games, lineups boasting the 21-year-old have conceded just 82.2 points per 100 possessions, the best rate in the league (minimum 20 minutes per game over two appearances).

And when he pairs with other members of the Timberwolves' bench mob, the whole becomes even more valuable than the sum of its parts, even though Okogie's most frequent on-court partners are a ragtag group of journeymen, specialists, rookies ... and, occasionally, a perennial All-Star.

Okogie, flyweight point man Shabazz Napier, stretch-four Jake Layman, and 20-year-old wing Jarrett Culver are the principal members of the team's bench unit. Improbably, rolling out all four together for roughly 8.25 minutes per game has ground opposing offenses to a halt, producing an 80.5 defensive rating. They're the seventh stingiest four-man lineup (minimum 30 total minutes) in the league and second among non-Utah Jazz quartets.

There are obvious sample size concerns, particularly weighted by the teams Minnesota has faced to date. Rewatch the Brooklyn Nets game. The Timberwolves' defense definitely benefitted from a lack of familiarity among the Nets' host of new players.

For instance, at the 2:55 mark of the first quarter, Garrett Temple sheds Okogie on a dribble hand-off with DeAndre Jordan at the top of the arc. Jordan rumbles to the paint. With Okogie now trailing, Temple and Jordan have effectively created a two-on-one against Noah Vonleh. Layman is in the vicinity but he doesn't commit to helping on the play. That's a pretty good scoring opportunity!

But it's a fruitless endeavor. Temple and Jordan seem to be unsure what the best plan of attack is. A Temple floater? A lob to the big man? Their indecisiveness results in the ball dinking off the front of the rim. Minnesota is rewarded for simply being present. Swap any 6-foot-9 forward in for Vonleh and the result in Game 1 of the season is probably the same. Give Temple and Jordan half a season to get on the same page and the former All-Star center is probably corralling the 'oop for an easy two.

On personnel alone, it's unlikely the Timberwolves can keep this up. Okogie has all the tools to be a great defender. Culver, too. But Napier and Layman are hardly imposing, and as the league's new-look teams find their footing, expect Minnesota's bench mob to taper off.

Verdict: Not real