NBA Finals betting cheat sheet
The Toronto Raptors are looking to keep the Golden State Warriors from three consecutive NBA titles as the two clubs are set to clash in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday. Here's everything you need to know about betting on the championship series, from trends to MVP odds and more.
Series prices
Warriors -300
Raptors +240
Caesars Sportsbook in Las Vegas originally opened Golden State as a -320 favorite on the series price despite the Raptors owning home-court advantage. Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Dubs a bit shorter at -275 before eventually moving the line to -300.
Betting tips
- The Warriors come in well-rested after sweeping the Portland Trail Blazers to punch their ticket to The Finals. However, teams with four or more days of rest between playoff games are covering the spread just 51.4 percent of the time since 2005, according to Bet Labs.
- Toronto doesn't have as much time between series, but the team will get a nice five-day layoff. However, the Raptors are 1-8 against the spread in their previous nine games coming off three or more days of rest.
- Golden State has been lights-out offensively at home in The Finals, going over its team total in four of the last five games at Oracle Arena while averaging 124 points per contest.
Exact series odds
| Prop | Odds |
|---|---|
| Warriors in 4 | 13-2 |
| Warriors in 5 | 7-2 |
| Warriors in 6 | 5-2 |
| Warriors in 7 | 4-1 |
| Raptors in 4 | 40-1 |
| Raptors in 5 | 10-1 |
| Raptors in 6 | 8-1 |
| Raptors in 7 | 9-2 |
The Warriors are arguably undervalued on their series price, so there isn't a Raptors-to-win prop that sticks out. Betting on Golden State to win in six doesn't offer much value at that number, either. The best bang for your buck here is picking the Warriors in five. They can split the first two at Scotiabank Arena, find a rhythm in Oracle, and go for the kill shot in Game 5 on the road.
MVP odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Steph Curry | 5-7 |
| Kawhi Leonard | 11-4 |
| Draymond Green | 10-1 |
| Klay Thompson | 15-1 |
| Kevin Durant | 20-1 |
| Pascal Siakam | 50-1 |
| Field | 75-1 |
| Kyle Lowry | 75-1 |
| Andre Iguodala | 100-1 |
| Marc Gasol | 200-1 |
| Fred VanVleet | 250-1 |
| Serge Ibaka | 250-1 |
Honestly, there's probably value on Curry, even at that number. The stars are aligned for him to grab his first Finals MVP award with Kevin Durant's status unclear for the title round. It's tough to envision any other Warrior outperforming Curry on the stat sheet should Golden State nab its third straight title.
Other trends
- Golden State has gone over the total in six of its last eight games in The Finals.
- Toronto has gone over the total in 10 of its last 14 games with three or more days rest.
- The underdog has covered in each of the last four meetings between Toronto and Golden State.
- The Warriors are 2-5-1 against the spread the previous eight meetings against the Raptors.
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.