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Throughout the month of October, theScore will examine the offseason moves and biggest fantasy storylines of each NBA team. This edition focuses on the Southwest Division.
Division Outlook
Atlantic | Central | Southeast
Pacific | Southwest | Northwest
Dallas Mavericks
Big Picture: Say goodbye to Chandler Parsons, and hello to Harrison Barnes. While the bodies will be different, the overall statistical profile may not change much. What will change, though, will be Barnes' usage rate.
As a Warrior, Barnes never eclipsed a usage rate of more than 18 percent. Expect somewhere between 22-25 percent with the Mavericks. Whether that results in a big gain in his production will be a huge factor in his individual development, and in the overall success of the Mavericks this season.
X-Factor: Despite his age, Dirk Nowitzki should continue to be a steady scorer and rebounder. Last season, the inevitable Hall-of-Famer finished with 18.3 points and 6.5 rebounds in 31.5 minutes a game. He'll continue to see his total minutes monitored, but Nowitzki remains a reliable fantasy contributor that should be attainable around the sixth round.
Up front, the Mavs also brought in former Warrior Andrew Bogut to replace Zaza Pachulia. Bogut should play a larger offensive role relative to his time with Golden State, but he isn't an appealing fantasy piece.
In the backcourt, Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews will man the PG and SG positions, respectively. While both have the potential to be dangerous, they rarely seem to put it all together in a consistent fashion. DFS players, however, can target them in favorable matchups for tournament lineups.
Houston Rockets
Big Picture: There is plenty of talk in Houston that James Harden will handle point guard duties. Already a ball-dominant scorer, Harden's fantasy profile could rise even further with this new role. Unfortunately, his propensity to turn it over will also rise. But given how he fills every other category, Harden is a top-three selection in all fantasy leagues.
Down low, PF Ryan Anderson was brought in from division rival New Orleans to serve as a stretch four. At center, Clint Capela should split time with former Denver big man Nene Hilario. Anderson provides the best fantasy value of this trio thanks to his 3-point range and rebounding ability. The 28-year old could even be in for a career year with a system that should fit his game perfectly.
X-Factor: Along with Anderson, SG Eric Gordon also departed New Orleans for Houston. The seventh overall pick in 2007 has always been a reliable scorer, with a career average of 16.6 points per game. His ability to remain healthy will be the biggest issue, as usual. Gordon has played 65 games or more only once in eight seasons. If he stays healthy, he'll be a fantasy steal.
PG Patrick Beverley and SF Trevor Ariza are stable presences in the starting five but don't offer much fantasy intrigue. Ariza's ability to shoot the three and collect a handful of rebounds and steals will force someone to select him, likely in the seventh round, but they won't be too excited about it. Look for players with higher ceilings at that juncture.
Memphis Grizzlies
Big Picture: When Mike Conley - a point guard who has averaged 13.6 points and 5.6 assists for his career - gets paid $30 million per year, the landscape of the NBA is truly changing. The Grizzlies also brought out the Brinks truck for the aforementioned Parsons, paying the former Maverick $22 million per season. It will be on these expensive shoulders that the Grizzlies try to make a real dent in the Western Conference.
While Conley and Parsons represent the immediate future, the aging duo of PF Zach Randolph and C Marc Gasol represent a fleeting past of down-low dominance. Gasol is by far the superior fantasy option. He's a fantastic passing big man and has just 19,190 career minutes to Randolph's 31,322.
X-Factor: The play of Parsons will be the storyline to watch. The Grizzlies ranked 27th in scoring last year and will need Parsons to improve on the middling 13.7 points per game he offered last season. But with four legitimate scorers on the roster, Parsons may have a tough time upping that mark.
New Orleans Pelicans
Big Picture: The Pelicans live and die by the play of PF Anthony Davis. 'The Brow' has already proven himself to be a dominant NBA player at 23, averaging at least 20 points, 10 rebounds, and two blocks in each of the past three seasons. He should be off all draft boards by the 10th pick.
In the backcourt, there are serious concerns. While Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday look good on paper, it's quite possible neither is available for the start of the year due to health issues and family complications, respectively. DFS players and those looking for early-season waiver wire adds will want to monitor the production of PG Langston Galloway and rookie SG Buddy Hield.
X-Factor: The health and availability of the backcourt is going to be an issue for New Orleans all season, as it was last year. Both Evans and Holiday have played over 65 games just three times in their respective seven-season careers. This instability significantly damages their fantasy appeal.
With the unpredictability of the backcourt, Oklahoma product Hield could be thrust into a larger role than initially expected. The NCAA tournament phenom averaged 25 points last season with the Hoosiers on 49.6 percent shooting from the field and 46.4 percent shooting from beyond-the-arc. He could be an early season source of points and three-balls.
San Antonio Spurs
Big Picture: The future of one of the most respected franchises in all of sports is firmly in the hands of SF Kawhi Leonard. The 25-year old had a career year last season, pouring in 21.2 points and 6.8 rebounds on the second-best shooting percentage (50.6) among small forwards. He is the one Spur free from the fantasy-killing reign of coach Gregg Popovich and will be a mid-to-late first-round selection.
Around Leonard, the Spurs are set to dominate the post with the addition of Spaniard Pau Gasol. Gasol averaged 16.5 points, 11 rebounds, and a stellar 4.1 assists per game as a 35-year-old last season. He'll fit just fine into San Antonio's system, but owners should expect a slight drop in overall production as is usually the case for any San Antonio acquisition.
X-Factor: The backcourt has to be the biggest question mark. PG Tony Parker averaged just 11.9 points in 27.5 minutes last year, and SG Danny Green disappointed in what was supposed to be a breakout year. Green will need to see his scoring eclipse 10 points a game, and Parker will have to remain productive at 34 years of age. Neither is a major asset in fantasy.
The other guard in San Antonio's repertoire is Australian Patty Mills. The diminutive veteran demonstrated the ability to take on a much larger role last year, scoring 13.5 points when afforded 30-39 minutes. Mills must continue that level of play, as he will assume starting duties in the increasingly often occurrence of Parker requiring a day off.
