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Here is a comprehensive breakdown of the shooting guard position going into the 2016 NBA fantasy draft season, courtesy theScore's team of fantasy experts (▲: player is trending upward; ▼: player is trending downward):
| EXPERT | STUD | DUD | ▲ | ▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Potter | Dwyane Wade | Devin Booker | Kyle Korver | Monta Ellis |
| Wilson | Andrew Wiggins | Danny Green | C.J. McCollum | Dwyane Wade |
| Ghatak | Bradley Beal | Will Barton | Victor Oladipo | Monta Ellis |
Will Dwyane Wade ever average 20 points again?
Potter: Gone are Derrick Rose and Pau Gasol, the Bulls' most-involved players in terms of Usage Rate who took a combined 29.7 shots per game. Enter Wade, who should eat up 15-to-20 of those lost FGAs. Other than Jimmy Butler, the likes of Rajon Rondo, Brook Lopez and Taj Gibson aren't a threat to steal touches. Wade will get back to 20 PPG this season.
Wilson: As Wade gets older and his role is expected to change with the move to Chicago, I can't help but think his usage is going down. That said, the lowest average he's ever produced, not counting his rookie campaign, is 19 PPG. He's done that two of the last three seasons. It's borderline, but with Butler the focal point of the Bulls' offense, Wade won't be scoring as often.
Ghatak: Absolutely not. If he fails to average 20 points this year, it should be safe to assume he won't find that form as he continues to age and regress. Playing alongside Butler, Gibson, Rondo and Nikola Mirotic should also limit Wade's scoring potential. In combination with health issues and the presence of rookie SG Denzel Valentine, Wade's days as a 20-PPG player are over.
Andrew Wiggins will be the _____-ranked shooting guard in 2016:
Potter: I have Wiggins pegged as just inside the top-10 SGs but that doesn't mean there isn't a path to top-5 status. Can Eric Bledsoe rebound from an injury-plagued campaign? Klay Thompson's stats will take a hit. C.J. McCollum is a regression candidate. If Wiggins makes marginal improvements across the board, he could climb the ladder quickly.
Wilson: With another year of C Karl-Anthony Towns by his side, Wiggins will reach the potential that had him drafted first overall in 2014. His rebounds dipped a bit from his rookie campaign, but he also became a more efficient producer. Towns takes the pressure off and Wiggins will continue to blossom into an elite scorer, resulting in a top-5 SG finish.
Ghatak: Eighth. Wiggins took a nice step forward last year, averaging 20.7 points per game while improving nearly all of his shooting percentages. His Usage Rate also jumped to 27.2, a mark that should hold true for 2016-17. Unfortunately, his limited contributions outside of points won't allow him to crack the top-5, but his point production alone makes him a top-8 contender.
Which sixth-man candidate will return the best fantasy value?
Potter: Value is all about what it costs to acquire an asset. In that respect, Nuggets wing Wilson Chandler could be incredibly valuable. He might not even be drafted in some leagues after missing last season with injury. He'll have to battle with fellow sixth-man Will Barton at times, but Chandler has averaged 13.3 points and 5.3 rebounds in Denver. His track record is longer.
Wilson: If the Utah Jazz use him as a depth player for his shooting ability only, Joe Johnson stands a decent chance at returning solid fantasy value. The pressure is off and Rodney Hood appears to be poised to keep the starting SG spot. He won't be elite, but he should be efficient in small doses.
Ghatak: Assuming Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight stay healthy, Devin Booker will be coming off the bench. However, the young guard proved his worth last year, averaging 13.8 points in 27.7 minutes per game. In combination with personal development, he should be given enough leeway in an up-tempo system to return strong value despite fewer starts.
