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Daytona 500 betting preview: Seven ways to win your NASCAR bets
So it begins. After a short winter break, NASCAR betting is back on track with the season opening Daytona 500 Sunday.
There have been a few rule changes in the offseason, some affect bettors, most do not. These changes will debut with the Daytona 500 but one thing remains the same: the racing on the track.
Here are some tips and tactics to consider when betting the Daytona 500 odds:
Set the stage
Drivers will tell you that they’re always trying to win, but with Daytona being a restrictor plate track, there’s still (and always has been) a huge element of luck. We may have a repeat winner Sunday or a first timer. In the last few years, we’ve had both.
You can’t really bet on who will lead the most laps this year, but you can bet on who will win one of the three race stages – a new rule to NASCAR this season. As competitive as drivers are, there will be a great deal of motivation to be the “first”. That is the first driver to win a stage. The stages for the Daytona 500 are laps 60, lap 120 and the final lap, 200.
Who will be the early leaders and thus be in a spot to win that very first stage at lap 60? Based on recent history the Joe Gibbs Racing stable is an early favorite. Among that four-car team is last year’s Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin (+1000). He’s looked strong all week and was half a lap from winning last Sunday’s Clash before getting swept up in a crash with Penske Racing driver Brad Keselowski (+600).
Manufacturer success
Chevrolet has the most Daytona 500 wins at 23, followed by Ford with 14 and Toyota has two - the last coming with Hamlin behind the wheel of a Toyota last season. This week, however, Fords have been fast. But two Hendrick motorsports Chevrolets took the first two starting spots last Sunday. Chase Elliott (+1800) won his second consecutive Daytona 500 pole, with his teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+600) securing second.
Junior is back
And speaking of Earnhardt Jr., NASCAR’s most popular driver is back after missing the second half of last season recovering from a concussion. He’s as fast as ever and has won the Daytona 500 twice. After getting medical clearance to race and getting married in the offseason, Junior looks happy and confident.
History lesson
Earnhardt Jr. is one of two race favorites, along with Keselowski, but anything can happen at any time during the Daytona 500. Given that unpredictability, choosing who will win each stage and who will win the race can best be done by looking at who has been strong here in the past.
Keselowski won the July race at Daytona, the last time the Cup series was here, and Earnhardt’s prowess at restrictor plate tracks is well known. Also strong here is Matt Kenseth (+1500), Kevin Harvick (+1200), Joey Logano (+800), who won his Daytona 500 just two years ago and won last week’s Clash. For the record, Hamlin won the Clash and the 500 last season. Prior to that Jeff Gordon was the last to do so, and that was in 1979.
Pole profits
The pole position is the most proficient starting position in the Daytona 500 field, producing more winners (nine) than any other position, followed by second-place (seven wins) and fourth-place (seven wins). Kenseth won the Daytona 500 from the 39th starting position in 2009, the deepest a race winner has started.
Championship swagger
Five reigning Cup Series champions have gone on to win the Daytona 500 the following season: Lee Petty (1959), Richard Petty (1973), Cale Yarborough (1977), Jeff Gordon (1999) and Dale Jarrett (2000). Jimmie Johnson (+1200) is this year’s reigning champion and he’s won two Daytona 500s so...
In the loop
One final stat NASCAR bettors should pay attention to when betting the Daytona 500 odds is loop data. The Driver Rating is based on a formula developed by NASCAR which combines "loop data" elements such as average running position, average speed under green, number of fastest laps, etc. There is a maximum of 150 points that a driver can earn for each race.
Factoring in history including Daytona wins, with Driver Ratings here are the Top 5 safest bets to win the Great American Race Sunday:
1. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+600): Has the second-highest driver rating in the field and two 500 wins.
2. Denny Hamlin (+1000): The defending winner and has the third-best driver rating, 91.0
3. Matt Kenseth (+1500): Has two Daytona 500 wins and the fifth-best driver rating of 88.5
4. Joey Logano (+800): Won the Daytona 500 in 2015 and has seventh-highest driver rating, 87.4
5. Kyle Busch (+1200): Has only one Daytona win and that came in the summer race. He has the highest driver rating in the field at 95.9 and seems due.
