NBA Draft Lottery preview: Odds, protections and owed picks

11 years ago

Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

For the 26 teams who didn't make the playoffs or have already been eliminated, the focus has turned to the 2015 NBA Draft which takes place June 25.

While the draft is still quite a ways away, draft season has decidedly begun. Last week marked the 2015 NBA Draft Combine, which featured most of the draft class' top prospects, with a few notable exceptions.

Some lucky team's fortunes could be altered dramatically.

The 2015 NBA Draft Lottery will take place Tuesday at 8:30 p.m. ET on E, with the 14 teams who didn't make the playoffs learning the draft order based on a random drawing of ping pong balls. Teams are awarded their share of balls based on their finish in the regular season, with the league's worst team having a 25-percent chance to land the No. 1 pick and the team closest to making the playoffs having a 0.5-percent chance.

The lottery determines the top three picks in the draft. After that, teams pick in reverse order of the final standings, meaning teams can't fall more than three slots from their regular-season finish.

The odds of each team landing in the top three and their most likely landing spot are as follows:

Team	#1	#2	#3	Most Likely
Minnesota	25.0%	21.5%	17.8%	4
New York	19.9%	18.8%	17.1%	4
Philadelphia	15.6%	15.7%	15.6%	5
L.A. Lakers	11.9%	12.6%	13.3%	5
Orlando	8.8%	9.7%	10.7%	6
Sacramento	6.3%	7.1%	8.1%	6
Denver	4.3%	4.9%	5.8%	7
Detroit	2.8%	3.3%	3.9%	8
Charlotte	1.7%	2.0%	2.4%	9
Miami	1.1%	1.3%	1.6%	10
Indiana	0.8%	0.9%	1.2%	11
Utah	0.7%	0.8%	1.0%	12
Phoenix	0.6%	0.7%	0.9%	13
Oklahoma City	0.5%	0.6%	0.7%	14

For two teams, the draft lottery is far more important than where the team will pick. That's because the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat all risk losing their pick in certain scenarios.

Lakers: The Lakers owe their pick to the Philadelphia 76ers by way of the Phoenix Suns if it lands outside of the top five. The pick was originally dealt in the Steve Nash trade and subsequently relayed to Philly in a three-team trade-deadline deal. There is a 17.2-percent chance the pick falls outside of the top five and gets conveyed. Otherwise, it becomes a top-three protected pick in 2016.

Heat: The Heat owe their pick to the 76ers by way of the Cleveland Cavaliers if it lands outside the top 10. The pick was originally dealt in the LeBron James sign-and-trade of 2010 and was subsequently traded in the three-team Kevin Love trade this summer. There's a 9.1-percent chance the pick falls outside of the top 10 and gets conveyed. Otherwise, it becomes a top-10 protected pick in 2016.

Other notes: The Indiana Pacers won a tiebreaker with the Utah Jazz for the No. 11 spot in the lottery, giving them one additional ping pong ball and the better selection if neither team moves up ... The Atlanta Hawks will swap picks with the Brooklyn Nets ... The Lakers receive the Houston Rockets' first-round pick ... The Boston Celtics receive the Los Angeles Clippers' first-round pick ... The Rockets receive the New Orleans Pelicans' first-round pick.

The first-round draft order is as follows, with the teams that could potentially select at each slot noted:

Selection	Most Likely	Other Possible
1	Minnesota	Teams 1-14
2	New York	Teams 1-14
3	Philadelphia	Teams 1-14
4	L.A. Lakers	MIN/NY/PHI
5	Orlando	NY/PHI/LAL
6	Sacramento	PHI/PHI (LAL)/ORL
7	Denver	PHI (LAL)/ORL/SAC
8	Detroit	ORL/SAC/DEN
9	Charlotte	SAC/DEN/DET
10	Miami	DEN/DET/CHA
11	Indiana	DET/CHA/PHI (MIA)
12	Utah	CHA/PHI (MIA)/IND
13	Phoenix	PHI (MIA)/IND/UTA
14	Oklahoma City	IND/UTA/PHX
15	Atlanta
16	Boston
17	Milwaukee
18	Houston
19	Washington
20	Toronto
21	Dallas
22	Chicago
23	Portland
24	Cleveland
25	Memphis
26	San Antonio
27	L.A. Lakers
28	Boston
29	Brooklyn
30	Golden State