theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks ahead of Saturday's UFC 327 in Miami.
Light heavyweight championship
Jiri Prochazka (32-5-1)
vs.
Carlos Ulberg (13-1)
Whenever Jiri Prochazka steps into the Octagon, MMA fans have learned to expect the unexpected.
That's what makes this UFC 327 main event so great. His opponent, Carlos Ulberg, is the kind of fighter who prioritizes winning over anything else. Methodical, tactical, smart. He has some highlight-reel knockouts on his resume, but at his roots, Ulberg is happy to use his large 6-foot-4 frame and pick you apart.
Prochazka, on the other hand, is a wild man. One of the most entertaining fighters in the UFC, the 33-year-old Czech Republic native has gone the distance just once in 38 professional appearances, boasting 31 finishes in 32 wins. He has an all-gas-no-brakes fight style, choosing to walk forward and throw strikes until the other guy in the cage is asleep. The approach has worked well for Prochazka, with his only two losses in the UFC coming against Alex Pereira, who just so happens to be vacating the light heavyweight title and opening the door for Prochazka and Ulberg to vie for the championship.
I find it tough to pick Ulberg because his likeliest path to victory is by shutting out Prochazka's lights. He could potentially win a decision, but let's be honest: this one ain't going the distance. When Prochazka is conscious, he's one of the most dangerous fighters in the world. He was behind on the judges' scorecards entering the third and final round against Khalil Rountree Jr., and then, boom, Prochazka did Prochazka things and got his opponent out of there in a stunning - yet seemingly inevitable - comeback win.
This might not be a picture-perfect performance from Prochazka, but when are they ever?
The pick: Prochazka, fourth-round TKO
Light heavyweight bout
Azamat Murzakanov (16-0)
vs.
Paulo Costa (15-4)
Former middleweight title challenger Paulo Costa is being thrown into the deep end in his return to the 205-pound division. Azamat Murzakanov hasn't gotten a whole lot of buzz as he's ascended the ladder, but the man can fight. The 36-year-old Russian's first-round knockout win over Aleksandar Rakic at UFC 321 last October proved he's one of the top up-and-comers in the weight class, and I expect him to keep that momentum going. Costa is 1-2 in his last three outings and, quite frankly, hasn't been the same since losing to Israel Adesanya six years ago.
The pick: Murzakanov, unanimous decision
Heavyweight bout
Curtis Blaydes (19-5, 1 NC)
vs.
Josh Hokit (8-0)
Josh Hokit, the cringiest fighter in the UFC right now, could be a top-five heavyweight next week if he beats Curtis Blaydes. Let that sink in for a moment. The good news for anyone out there who isn't the biggest fan of Hokit's shtick is that this is a terrible stylistic matchup for him, on top of already being a massive jump up in competition. A perennial heavyweight contender for the last decade, Blaydes has some of the best wrestling and ground-and-pound in the division. If Blaydes gets the fight to the mat, it'll be game over for Hokit pretty quickly.
The pick: Blaydes, second-round TKO
Light heavyweight bout
Dominick Reyes (15-5)
vs.
Johnny Walker (22-9, 1 NC)
This one may come down to who gets hit first. As wild as this sounds, I feel a bit more comfortable putting my faith in Dominick Reyes to win than I do Johnny Walker.
The pick: Reyes, first-round knockout
Featherweight bout
Cub Swanson (30-14)
vs.
Nate Landwehr (18-7)
After a 19-year career spanning the UFC and WEC, Cub Swanson is finally hanging up the gloves - and he's going out with a banger of a matchup against Nate "The Train" Landwehr. Neither of these guys knows how to be in a boring fight, and neither man's heart or toughness has ever been questioned. Landwehr will give it all he's got, but you know I'm not picking against Killer Cub in his retirement fight.
The pick: Swanson, split decision
Rapid-fire bets
Best overall bet: Tatiana Suarez (-150) def. Loopy Godinez
While some may still have a sour taste in their mouths from Suarez's lopsided loss to Zhang Weili in February 2025, as the second- or third-best strawweight in the UFC, she should be a bigger favorite against Godinez than she is.
Best underdog bet: Patricio "Pitbull" Freire (+240) def. Aaron Pico
It's hard to know how Pico will look after suffering the worst knockout loss of his career against Lerone Murphy last summer. He's the rightful favorite in this honorary Bellator featherweight title fight, but this wouldn't be the first time Freire pulled off an upset.
Best prop bet: Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown over 2.5 rounds (-140)
Holland and Brown are very evenly matched, making it unlikely we see a quick finish.
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