theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks ahead of Saturday's UFC 322 in New York.
Welterweight championship
Jack Della Maddalena (18-2)
vs.
Islam Makhachev (27-1)
Islam Makhachev is looking to etch his name in the history books by becoming the 11th (or 12th) fighter in UFC history to win titles in two different weight classes. To do so, he'll have to get past the striking of welterweight's unsung champion, Jack Della Maddalena.
Australia's Della Maddalena, who captured the 170-pound title in an upset win over Belal Muhammad in May, will be a tougher matchup for Makhachev than some may expect. His pinpoint accuracy and aggressiveness on the feet could make it difficult for Makhachev to gain control of the fight and take it to the ground. Della Maddalena has also demonstrated solid takedown defense in past bouts (though he did give up a few against Muhammad and Gilbert Burns).
That said, it's hard not to pick Makhachev to beat any lightweight or welterweight on the planet. The 34-year-old Dagestani has been the gold standard in the UFC for a while, dominating the likes of Alexander Volkanovski, Charles Oliveira, and Dustin Poirier to cement himself as one of the sport's top pound-for-pound fighters. Now that he's not cutting down to 155 pounds, he might perform even better.
Saturday's main event will largely come down to whether or not Makhachev can take Della Maddalena down and outgrapple him. If he can, double-champ status awaits.
👊 The pick: Makhachev, fourth-round submission
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Women's flyweight championship
Valentina Shevchenko (25-4-1)
vs.
Zhang Weili (26-3)
Two of the greatest women's MMA fighters in history will clash in a long-awaited superfight.
Valentina Shevchenko and Zhang Weili have ruled over the flyweight and strawweight divisions, respectively, for years, and now they'll meet in the Octagon to determine who's the top woman in the sport.
This fight is extremely tough to call, but I'm siding with Shevchenko to retain her title.
Zhang is a beast at 115 pounds, but she won't be able to rely on her physicality as much at 125 pounds. And when it comes down to technique - especially in the striking department - Shevchenko is superior. Look for "Bullet" to control the distance and pick Zhang apart on the feet, and then use her size to mix in some grappling later in the fight.
👊 The pick: Shevchenko, unanimous decision
Welterweight bout
Sean Brady (18-1)
vs.
Michael Morales (18-0)
Michael Morales is a terrific rising contender in the welterweight division, but this feels like the fight where the 26-year-old finally meets his match. That's not a knock on Morales; it's a testament to how good Sean Brady is. An elite wrestler who became the first to finish former champion Leon Edwards earlier this year, Brady is out to prove he deserves a title shot. I expect a big-time performance from Philadelphia's finest.
👊 The pick: Brady, unanimous decision
Welterweight bout
Leon Edwards (22-5, 1 NC)
vs.
Carlos Prates (22-7)
I'm giving Edwards a better chance of beating Carlos Prates than most people are. Two reasons: He's fighting a striker, not a wrestler, and Prates could put forth another stinker like he did against Ian Machado Garry. However, I admit it's tough to trust Edwards after his incredibly uninspiring performance against Brady earlier this year. He barely looked like he wanted to be in the cage that night, which isn't typically a recipe for success. Prates is the hungrier of the two, so I have to side with the Brazilian to score the biggest win of his career. Still, I don't think it'll come as easily - or violently - as some are saying.
👊 The pick: Prates, unanimous decision
Lightweight bout
Beneil Dariush (23-6-1)
vs.
Benoit Saint Denis (15-3, 1 NC)
Beneil Dariush's last win came against Renato Moicano, and Benoit Saint Denis' last loss came against Moicano. And because MMA math never works, I'm picking Saint Denis.
👊 The pick: Saint Denis, second-round TKO
Rapid-fire bets
💥 Best overall bet: Sean Brady (-140) def. Michael Morales
Brady has the perfect kind of grueling style to neutralize Morales' offense. If he can dictate where the fight goes, he'll win in dominant fashion and look like a much bigger favorite than he is.
💥 Best underdog bet: Zhang Weili (+115) def. Valentina Shevchenko
UFC 322 doesn't have many underdogs I'd be willing to bet on, but if you're desperate to call an upset, Zhang at +115 - in a coin-flip fight with Shevchenko - is as good as you'll get.
💥 Best prop bet: Della-Maddalena vs. Makhachev goes past 2.5 rounds (-190)
An early finish seems unlikely in Saturday's main event. Regardless of the outcome, it'll take a while for Della Maddalena and Makhachev to figure each other out.
