UFC 321 predictions: Will Gane play spoiler vs. Aspinall?
theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the UFC 321 main-card bouts ahead of Saturday's event in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
Heavyweight championship
Tom Aspinall (15-3)
vs.
Ciryl Gane (13-2)
The Tom Aspinall era is here.
Aspinall is stepping into the Octagon for the first time since Jon Jones retired from MMA and the UFC elevated the Englishman to undisputed heavyweight champion. Now he's looking to hold off Ciryl Gane and firmly cement himself as the baddest man on the planet.
A heavy -400 favorite, Aspinall's significant edge in the grappling department will guide him to victory in his first title defense. He has great takedowns, top control, and submissions, and Gane has shown deficiencies in those areas before, namely against Jones and Francis Ngannou.
In the stand-up department, it's a much closer matchup. Aspinall has devastating power in his fists and is coming off three consecutive knockout wins, while Gane is a very tactical striker, thanks to his Muay Thai background. If Aspinall doesn't get the fight to the mat, it wouldn't be too shocking if Gane is able to steal a few rounds on the feet.
That said, I'm confident Aspinall can get hold of his opponent and lock up an early submission. He hasn't gone past the first round since 2021, so let's go with that.
The pick: Aspinall, first-round submission
Strawweight championship
Virna Jandiroba (22-3)
vs.
Mackenzie Dern (15-5)
With Zhang Weili leaving the strawweight division to challenge Valentina Shevchenko for the women's flyweight title, a new 115-pound champion will be crowned when Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern square off in a rematch.
Dern defeated Jandiroba when they met almost five years ago, but I suspect we'll see a fairly different fight. Jandiroba is an impressive 6-1 since that loss, beating the likes of Yan Xiaonan and Amanda Lemos to cement herself as the top strawweight in the promotion behind Zhang. She excels on the ground, but she's well-rounded and very consistent overall.
Dern, on the other hand, is one of the most decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu artists to compete in the UFC. Her ability to lock up slick submissions has carried her to a title shot, but her striking is still lacking a bit. Dern would beat Jandiroba in a grappling match, but with all facets of MMA in play, I like Jandiroba to edge out a tight victory.
The pick: Jandiroba, unanimous decision
Bantamweight bout
Umar Nurmagomedov (18-1)
vs.
Mario Bautista (16-2)
Umar Nurmagomedov didn't come out on top when he faced Merab Dvalishvili for the title in January, but he got pretty close. That's enough for me to believe he's the second-best bantamweight in the UFC and that he beats anyone in the division not named Dvalishvili. Expect a dominant performance from Nurmagomedov as he rebounds from the first loss of his career - and potentially locks up another title shot.
The pick: Nurmagomedov, unanimous decision
Heavyweight bout
Alexander Volkov (38-11)
vs.
Jailton Almeida (22-3)
This is the toughest fight to call on the main card, and I'm really intrigued to see how it plays out. Alexander Volkov feels like the better fighter, but Jailton Almeida's jiu-jitsu is a nightmare matchup for him. The bout will largely come down to whether Volkov can keep it standing. He's shown iffy takedown defense in the past, so I'll take Almeida to grind out the biggest win of his career.
The pick: Almeida, unanimous decision
Light heavyweight bout
Aleksandar Rakic (14-5)
vs.
Azamat Murzakanov (15-0)
Aleksandar Rakic hasn't won a fight since 2021, so I'll take the surging Azamat Murzakanov in this one.
The pick: Murzakanov, second-round TKO
