theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the UFC 316 main-card bouts ahead of Saturday's event in Newark.
Bantamweight championship
Merab Dvalishvili (19-4)
vs.
Sean O'Malley (18-2, 1 NC)
UFC bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili is putting his belt on the line for the second time against the man from whom he took it, former champ Sean O'Malley, last September at Sphere in Las Vegas. Dvalishvili made easy work of O'Malley in their first fight, outstriking him by a 214-49 margin, completing six takedowns, and amassing over 10 minutes of control.
It goes without saying that O'Malley needs to come into the rematch with a completely different approach if he wants to have a shot at regaining the title. But even if O'Malley is better than he was in the first fight, there's a good chance Dvalishvili will be better, too.
Dvalishvili has leveled up since his coronation at UFC 306, pulling off an upset against the previously undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov in his first title defense in January. O'Malley, on the other hand, has been sitting on the sidelines, recovering from a hip surgery he underwent after the loss to Dvalishvili.
O'Malley needs to be more aggressive in the stand-up department in the rematch. He needs to land as many punches as possible early in rounds, before Dvalishvili can get his wrestling going. And, ideally, he needs to shut out the lights.
Unfortunately for O'Malley, that's way easier said than done. Dvalishvili is a relentless cardio machine and will keep pressuring O'Malley until he's on top of him. O'Malley was no match for Dvalishvili nine months ago, and I don't see that changing now.
The pick: Dvalishvili, unanimous decision
Women's bantamweight championship
Julianna Pena (11-5)
vs.
Kayla Harrison (18-1)
Is this Kayla Harrison's crowning moment?
Ever since she left the PFL and signed with the UFC in early 2024, it's felt like only a matter of time before Harrison was the queen of the women's bantamweight division. And she has finally a chance to make that a reality as a heavy betting favorite against Julianna Pena.
It's understandable that Harrison, an Olympic gold medalist in judo, is -800 against Pena, but we can't count out Pena entirely. She might have the edge on the feet, and if anyone needs to be reminded, this is the woman who beat Amanda Nunes in an all-time stunner. Pena is no stranger to upsets.
That said, Harrison will have a massive physical advantage and should be able to bully Pena on the ground. The pick is Harrison, though I don't think it'll be as easy as the odds suggest.
The pick: Harrison, unanimous decision
Middleweight bout
Kelvin Gastelum (19-9, 1 NC)
vs.
Joe Pyfer (13-3)
Kelvin Gastelum and Joe Pyfer are finally set to lock horns. This matchup was supposed to happen at UFC Mexico City in March, but Pyfer withdrew on fight day due to an illness.
This one will come down to Pyfer's size advantage. He's 6-foot-2 - and looks every bit of it - while Gastelum is awfully small for the division at 5-foot-9. Pyfer should be able to outmuscle Gastelum in the clinch and on the ground, and he has enough power to hang with the more technically sound Gastelum on the feet.
The pick: Pyfer, second-round submission
Other main-card predictions: Patchy Mix def. Mario Bautista by unanimous decision; Kevin Holland def. Vicente Luque by second-round TKO
