theScore's Alex Chippin subs in for Nick Baldwin and makes his picks for the UFC 311 main-card bouts ahead of Saturday's event in Los Angeles.
Lightweight championship
Islam Makhachev (26-1)
vs.
Renato Moicano (20-5-1)
Moicano steps in to challenge the UFC's No. 1 pound-for-pound male fighter on a single day of notice after Arman Tsarukyan (who, for the record, I was going to pick) withdrew with a last-minute back injury.
A late shakeup sometimes helps the underdog, who can catch the favorite by surprise and generally has more to win with less to lose, but this will be a massive uphill battle for Moicano. He's entering the cage against a supremely more talented fighter, and he's going in without much of a game plan. In a skill-versus-skill competition, Makhachev should win every time.
Moicano may hold his own early, but he isn't the type of knockout artist who could land one on the chin and change the course of UFC history. His jiu-jitsu game is strong, but Makhachev is too good to submit. Makhachev should be able to put the Brazilian away once he gets a feel for the range and rhythm of the fight.
Moicano would be in tough against Makhachev at the best of times, and these - to be clear - are not the best of times.
The pick: Makhachev, submission
Bantamweight championship
Merab Dvalishvili (18-4)
vs.
Umar Nurmagomedov (18-0)
This felt like a toss-up when the UFC teased it in September, but the vibes couldn't be worse for Dvalishvili heading into fight night.
For starters, the newly crowned champion openly campaigned against a Nurmagomedov tilt even though it was clearly going to happen - not a great way to inspire confidence. He's also jumping in four months after winning the title despite proclaiming his desire for a longer layoff. It elicits memories of his training partner, Aljamain Sterling, caving to promotional pressure and losing to Sean O'Malley on a three-month turnaround.
Even if vibes are overrated, it's difficult to see how Dvalishvili can gain an advantage in the cage. The wrestling prowess and insane cardio he uses to overwhelm opponents won't work on Nurmagomedov, who will happily live in that world. Dvalishvili will have to win kickboxing exchanges, but he's not a heavy hitter and his challenger has looked more polished on the feet, albeit against mostly lesser competition.
The pick: Nurmagomedov, decision
Light heavyweight bout
Jiri Prochazka (30-5-1)
vs.
Jamahal Hill (12-2, 1NC)
Besides the obvious stylistic differences, these two are a near-spitting image of each other. Both are coming off knockout losses to Alex Pereira. Both defeated Glover Teixeira to become champion. Both vacated the belt without defending it due to injury.
There isn't a ton of recent data to go off of, but the one thing we know about the enigmatic Prochazka is that he fights with his hands down. The one thing we know about the confident - perhaps closer to cocky - Hill is that he's got a lot of power in his hands.
You can figure out where this is going.
The pick: Hill, TKO
Other main-card predictions: Jailton Almeida def. Serghei Spivac by decision; Kevin Holland def. Reinier de Ridder by decision
