Ahead of Saturday's UFC 292 in Boston, theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the main-card bouts.
Bantamweight championship
Aljamain Sterling (23-3)
vs.
Sean O'Malley (16-1, 1 NC)
UFC bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling fought long and hard to earn MMA fans' respect. As soon as he won the title via disqualification in 2021, it was clear his title reign would be a strange one. But Sterling has quietly built up a resume that compares to the best of the best in 135-pound history.
Indeed, Sterling's second win over Petr Yan was a close fight. TJ Dillashaw's preexisting shoulder injury marred Sterling's victory in that bout. And, most recently, Sterling's split-decision triumph over Henry Cejudo, again, could have gone either way. But Sterling ultimately got his hand raised against three former champions. Winning nine in a row in one of the sport's deepest divisions is no easy task.
Against Sean O'Malley, Sterling will pick up his clearest title defense win yet.
This is a true grappler-versus-striker matchup. Sterling is sensational on the ground. He can masterfully control his opponents for full rounds if he doesn't find a finish. O'Malley, on the other hand, is a lanky power puncher. "Sugar" throws a lot and, more often than not, he lands the kill shot.
Stylistically, Sterling is about as tough of a matchup as O'Malley can get. The latter hasn't always shown the most reliable takedown defense, especially in the clinch. I'm very confident Sterling will be able to get O'Malley on the ground early and make quick work of the brash challenger, once again solidifying his place as the best bantamweight on the planet.
The pick: Sterling, second-round submission
Strawweight championship
Zhang Weili (23-3)
vs.
Amanda Lemos (13-2-1)
Zhang Weili returns for the first defense of her second title reign, and I expect her to have a showcase performance.
Fans shouldn't completely count Amanda Lemos out, but Zhang is arguably better in all areas - except for pure power punches. Lemos needs to knock Zhang out to take the title away, while Zhang can win in several different ways.
Zhang has become quite the beast since she lost the title to Rose Namajunas in 2021. She's won two in a row by stoppage, knocking out Joanna Jedrzejczyk in highlight-reel fashion and then bulldozing past Carla Esparza to regain the belt. This new version of Zhang seems borderline unstoppable.
Against Lemos, there's a good chance Zhang will resort to her ground game. She's improved in the grappling department in recent fights, controlling Jedrzejczyk on the ground for a while and using a submission to beat Esparza. Whether she grapples Lemos en route to a submission or just beats her up with ground-and-pound, I expect that to be a big part of her game plan. The big question is whether or not Lemos survives all five rounds. I'll say she doesn't.
The pick: Zhang, third-round TKO
Welterweight bout
Neil Magny (28-10)
vs.
Ian Machado Garry (12-0)
By all accounts, Ian Machado Garry will be a welterweight division contender for years to come - and his rise will continue Saturday with an emphatic win over Neil Magny.
If Magny had a full training camp to figure out how to hand Garry his first career loss, I'd be more inclined to predict an upset. After all, Magny is a savvy veteran with a grinding style that could give the Irish prospect problems. But Magny stepped up just last week after Geoff Neal pulled out.
Garry is a dynamic, powerful striker, and he should have a huge advantage on the feet. If Magny survives an early onslaught and takes Garry into deep waters, maybe he can steal a decision. That's his only shot, though, and my gut is telling me Garry gets it done early.
I suspect he'll catch Magny on the feet before Magny can really get started. It's been a number of years since Magny was last blown out of the water, but it can happen - just ask Lorenz Larkin.
The pick: Garry, first-round TKO
Other main-card predictions: Mario Bautista beats Da'Mon Blackshear by submission; Marlon Vera beats Pedro Munhoz by decision
