RIO DE JANEIRO, RJ - JANUARY 21: Gilbert Burns prepares to fight Neil Magny in their Welterweight fight during the UFC 283 event at Jeunesse Arena on January 21, 2023 in Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.

UFC 287 best bets: Back Burns to smash Masvidal

3 years ago

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Saturday's UFC 287 features a rematch between middleweight champion Alex Pereira and former champ Israel Adesanya.

Also on the card, Gilbert Burns collides with Jorge Masvidal in a huge welterweight bout.

Adesanya is slightly favored to regain the 185-pound throne in the main event, sitting at -135 on theScore Bet. This is a coin-toss fight, so it's probably best to just sit back and enjoy it.

Before the action gets underway at Kaseya Center in Miami, here are the two best bets for the event.

Holland-Ponzinibbio over 2.5 rounds (+110)

A key welterweight matchup between Kevin Holland and Santiago Ponzinibbio is destined to go late.

While neither man is a total decision machine, this fight looks like an entertaining three-round battle on paper. Holland is lanky and picks his opponents apart from the outside, and Ponzinibbio likes to throw heavy shots in the phone booth. The striking exchanges are bound to be competitive.

Three of Ponzinibbio's last four fights were decisions, and the other was a knockout win over Alex Morono that just missed the over 2.5 rounds prop at 2:29 of the third round. Holland went past the 2.5-round mark in his last fight, a main-event loss to Stephen Thompson, and has done so in almost half his UFC bouts.

What sells me on this over prop is that both Holland and Ponzinibbio are known for their toughness. Holland took a ton of punishment against "Wonderboy" last December before his corner stopped the fight between the fourth and fifth rounds. Ponzinibbio also took huge shots against Morono, managed to stay in the fight, and then rallied for a late finish.

Don't expect to see a quick finish in this main-card tilt, and at plus money, I'd sprinkle a bit of money on this prop.

Gilbert Burns to win inside the distance (-110)

There's no other way to put it: Burns is going to run through Masvidal.

"Durinho" has been firing on all cylinders. He made a submission win over Neil Magny in January look easy, and he pushed Khamzat Chimaev to the limit last year. Meanwhile, Masvidal's career has looked like it's winding down. He's coming off an uninspiring, lopsided loss to Colby Covington, and before that, he suffered a brutal knockout loss to then welterweight champion Kamaru Usman.

If this matchup was taking place a few years ago, I'd be hesitant to back Burns by finish. Historically, Masvidal has been very tough and difficult to knock out or submit. But Usman cracked Masvidal's chin in their 2021 rematch, and Covington secured six takedowns with minimal resistance from Masvidal in March 2022.

Covington wasn't able to put Masvidal away, but Burns is a much better jiu-jitsu practitioner than Covington. If Burns can get Masvidal to the ground - he likely will at some point - I have full confidence that he'll lock up a submission within three rounds. On the feet, Burns is no slouch either. Masvidal may have overall better striking technique, but Burns is aggressive and has a lot of power.

Burns has a clear edge on the ground but might just be better than Masvidal everywhere. Expect a showcase performance from the Brazilian contender.

Here are the full odds for UFC 287 on April 8: