Ahead of Saturday's UFC 274 in Phoenix, theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the top bouts.
Lightweight championship
Charles Oliveira (32-8, 1 NC)
vs.
Justin Gaethje (23-3)
This was already one of the more anticipated fights of 2022, but things got even more interesting Friday.
Oliveira missed weight ahead of what was supposed to be his second lightweight title defense and will be stripped of the belt at the start of the contest. Only Gaethje is eligible to become champion.
It's hard to say how the weight fiasco will affect Oliveira, if at all. Fighters often miss weight and perform just fine. But this was an unprecedented situation: Oliveira became the first UFC champion ever to miss weight. You have to imagine that will take a mental toll on him.
Plus, Gaethje had a decent amount of time to start rehydrating while Oliveira was still trying to make the limit. Gaethje might be fresher by the time the fight rolls around.
Before weigh-ins, I was prepared to side with Oliveira, who has some of the nastiest jiu-jitsu chops in the entire sport. I thought he would weather Gaethje's storm in the striking department and end up sinking in a submission midway through the fight, similar to how his first title defense against Dustin Poirier played out in December.
But I'm changing my pick to Gaethje. This was - and still is - a razor-close matchup on paper, so this is more of a gut feeling than anything. I'm just worried about how Oliveira will look and can't shake the thought that we won't see him at his best.
Expect "The Highlight" to use his pressure to overwhelm Oliveira on the feet. And before "Do Bronx" even has a chance to get him to the mat, Gaethje will find the stoppage victory.
The pick: Gaethje, first-round knockout
Strawweight championship
Rose Namajunas (11-4)
vs.
Carla Esparza (18-6)
Namajunas is a sizable favorite to defeat Esparza in the rematch and make it 1-1 in their series, but Esparza's tricky style could give the champ a run for her money.
Of course, this is a completely different matchup than when Namajunas and Esparza met in 2014 for the inaugural UFC strawweight title. That was just Namajunas' fourth pro fight. There's not much we can take from Esparza's submission win over Namajunas to help us predict how the second encounter will unfold.
Still, Esparza is the best wrestler Namajunas has faced. "The Cookie Monster" suffocates her opponents on the ground - her most recent win against Yan Xiaonan in May 2021 was especially violent - and could do the same to Namajunas.
Namajunas will likely have to keep this fight on the feet to retain her title. She is the far better striker, so expect her to keep a distance, reduce her volume of kicks so Esparza can't grab her leg for an easy takedown, and try to outwork Esparza with punches.
Ultimately, Namajunas has grown more since their first matchup, so I'm leaning in her direction. I like "Thug" to stay composed on the feet and limit Esparza's takedowns enough to win the majority of the rounds. Namajunas has some submission chops of her own, so if Esparza does get her down, it won't be completely one-sided, either.
The pick: Namajunas, unanimous decision
Lightweight bout
Michael Chandler (22-7)
vs.
Tony Ferguson (25-6)
This fight comes down to how far past his prime Ferguson is.
"El Cucuy" at his best would have beaten Chandler, but the man who was dominated by Gaethje, Oliveira, and Beneil Dariush over the past two years likely won't.
If Ferguson has used the past year off to rejuvenate himself, work on his skills, and figure out what went wrong, then maybe he can pull off the upset. But I have to base my prediction on what we've seen lately, and that means siding with Chandler.
The former Bellator champion should bust up Ferguson in what will likely be a striking battle for as long as the fight lasts. Prime Ferguson might've tried to get Chandler to the ground and go for a submission, but I doubt that'll be the case Saturday.
Ferguson might have a few moments in the fight. Compared to Oliveira and Dariush, this is a much better matchup for him stylistically, since Chandler is primarily a striker. But Chandler has done well in the UFC so far, so it's tough to pick an aging veteran to beat him. He hits harder than Ferguson and will connect at a higher clip.
Ferguson has always been tough as nails, but that's not going to win him fights - at least not anymore. Unless the Ferguson of old is back, this one could get a little ugly.
The pick: Chandler, third-round TKO
