Ahead of Saturday's UFC 264 in Las Vegas, theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the top bouts.
Lightweight main event
Dustin Poirier (27-6, 1 NC)
vs.
Conor McGregor (22-5)
It's hard not to pick Poirier after what he did to McGregor in their rematch earlier in 2021.
The old version of McGregor returned at Thursday's press conference - he talked a lot of trash after a friendly leadup to the second fight - but that won't help him win the trilogy. Poirier remained calm the entire time, and it's quite clear McGregor isn't inside his head like he was before their first matchup in 2014.
Frankly, Poirier is too good for McGregor right now. He's at the peak of his career, while there's an argument to be made that McGregor is a little past his prime. Poirier has lost one fight since 2016 and McGregor has won only one fight in that time.
McGregor is great at making adjustments - he lost to Nate Diaz in early 2016 and then won the rematch later that year - and that could come into play. He'll likely have fixed some of the issues from the last fight throughout his training camp, and that should theoretically make the trilogy bout more competitive.
But, in the end, Poirier will have an answer for everything McGregor brings to the table, even if the Irishman utilizes more weapons than he did in January. Poirier's striking skill set is diverse, and "The Diamond" has a sturdy chin. As long as he makes it out of the always dangerous first round against McGregor, expect Poirier to overwhelm the former two-division champion midway through the fight.
The pick: Poirier, third-round TKO
Welterweight bout
Gilbert Burns (19-4)
vs.
Stephen Thompson (16-4-1)
This is an extremely compelling matchup between one of the best grapplers and one of the best strikers in the UFC.
The outcome will come down entirely to where the fight takes place. If Burns can get it to the ground, this is his fight to lose. But if Thompson can keep it standing - which I think he will - then he'll likely get the job done.
Thompson has defended 78% of takedown attempts against him in the UFC, which is a pretty solid rate. His distance management makes it tough for fighters to get close, and that'll be no different when Burns inevitably wants to take Saturday's co-main event to the mat.
"Wonderboy" should consider taking a heavier boxing approach and limiting his kicks, so Burns can't catch one and score an easy takedown.
As long as Thompson fights intelligently and doesn't leave himself open for a power punch, he should outpoint the grappler en route to a decision victory.
The pick: Thompson, unanimous decision
Heavyweight bout
Tai Tuivasa (12-3)
vs.
Greg Hardy (7-3, 1 NC)
Hardy will look to bounce back from the first stoppage loss of his career when he takes on Tuivasa, an entertaining brawler who's riding a two-fight winning streak.
The former NFL player is the slight underdog in this matchup, but there's good reason to think he'll prevail. Hardy is still growing as a fighter, as he's been competing for less than four years. He continues to learn a lot between fights, and that will be especially true after a loss like the ground-and-pound TKO he suffered versus Marcin Tybura last December.
As a striker himself, Tuivasa doesn't present the same challenges on the ground that Tybura did. Hardy should be able to control the pace of the fight and stay more active on the feet.
Like all heavyweights, Tuivasa has one-punch knockout power, but unless he connects with the perfect shot, expect Hardy to get back in the win column with a composed effort.
The pick: Hardy, unanimous decision
Bantamweight bout
Sean O'Malley (13-1)
vs.
Kris Moutinho (9-4)
Moutinho is stepping in on short notice, and the UFC newcomer will likely be in over his head.
O'Malley - a 9-1 betting favorite - will be bigger and more prepared when he steps into the Octagon against Moutinho in the pay-per-view opener, and he's also simply the more skilled fighter.
The 26-year-old prospect is a crafty striker with a lot of power for the 135-pound division. Moutinho, meanwhile, is an action fighter who usually stays on the feet but also has a grappling base.
O'Malley will likely want to get Moutinho out of there as soon as he can since he's heavily favored to win the fight, and he'll be successful in doing so.
The pick: O'Malley, first-round knockout
