Saturday's UFC 263 card features a middleweight title fight between Israel Adesanya and Marvin Vettori and a flyweight title bout pitting Deiveson Figueiredo against Brandon Moreno.
Adesanya is a sizable favorite for his next title defense, currently sitting at -265 on theScore Bet. He should be favored to get the job done, but after Vettori took him to a split decision in their first meeting three years ago, that price is too steep to make a wager.
Before the action gets underway at Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona, here's a look at the two best bets for the pay-per-view card.
$100 parlay to net $66.30
Figueiredo, the reigning flyweight champion, is looking to retain his belt for the third time. He fought Moreno to a majority draw in December, but there's reason to believe the rematch will be more convincing in favor of Figueiredo.
The 33-year-old Brazilian was hospitalized with stomach issues the day before the first fight, so it's unlikely he was at full strength when he faced Moreno. Yet he fought his opponent to a draw and delivered a "Fight of the Year" candidate. Imagine what Figueiredo can do without being sick the day before.
Moreno, 27, is one of the toughest flyweights on the UFC roster - that was clear in last year's fight. Figueiredo landed heavy shots to Moreno's chin and body, but the challenger didn't fall. Instead, he kept walking forward. Moreno will always be able to rely on his chin to keep him in fights, and his sharp stand-up abilities could keep this rematch nearly as competitive as the first contest.
But Figueiredo is a championship-caliber fighter, and one can expect him to make the necessary adjustments to clearly beat Moreno in their second meeting.
The other side of the parlay sees Edwards take on Nate Diaz in a pivotal welterweight bout.
Edwards is a massive favorite, but putting the 29-year-old in a parlay with a smaller favorite like Figueiredo can help maximize the value.
The No. 3-ranked welterweight should dominate Diaz. He's bigger, stronger, and more technical. On the feet, a patient Edwards will pick apart Diaz with crisp punches. And if the fight goes to the ground, Edwards has the grappling chops to control Diaz and avoid getting caught in a submission.
Frankly, it's tough to see a path to victory for Diaz. The former lightweight title challenger is a solid boxer, has a great jiu-jitsu game, and is tough as nails, but the 36-year-old is arguably past his prime. Edwards, meanwhile, is at his peak riding a nine-fight unbeaten streak, and he rarely makes a mistake inside the Octagon.
Diaz has only been finished twice since 2006, so Edwards - who's gone the distance in most of his recent fights - is unlikely to end this contest inside five rounds. Barring a Hail Mary submission from Diaz, a dominant decision for the Brit is the likeliest outcome.
Two proven finishers at light heavyweight are set to collide in the main-card opener.
The fight between Hill and Craig will likely end within the first seven-and-a-half minutes, so taking the under prop at nearly plus money makes a lot of sense.
Craig has gone the distance just once in his 19-fight career, and 14 of his bouts have ended in the first round-and-a-half. Win or lose, the 33-year-old's fights are virtually guaranteed to end before the final horn.
Hill, 30, has a few more decisions under his belt than Craig, but he's proven to be more dangerous of late, as two of his three UFC bouts have ended inside the distance.
There's also bad blood between Hill and Craig heading into Saturday's clash. They were slated to meet in March, but the UFC removed Hill from the fight after he tested positive for COVID-19. Hill took issue with Craig saying he "pulled out" of the matchup, and the fighters traded barbs on social media.
That animosity is just more reason to believe the up-and-comers will go for the finish as soon as the opening horn sounds.
Here are the full odds from theScore Bet for UFC 263 on June 12: