Ahead of Saturday's UFC 262 in Houston, theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the top bouts.
Lightweight championship
Charles Oliveira (30-8, 1 NC)
vs.
Michael Chandler (22-5)
Saturday's main event will mark the start of a new era in the lightweight division, as either Oliveira or Chandler will capture the vacant title and become former dominant champion Khabib Nurmagomedov's successor.
This is a very tough fight to call, but it's almost guaranteed to end with a nasty finish. As seen in his UFC debut against Dan Hooker earlier in 2021, Chandler possesses brutal knockout power. Oliveira, meanwhile, has recorded the most submissions in UFC history (14), and his rear-naked choke is among the best in the game. This is truly a fascinating clash of styles.
I've been all-in on Oliveira since he dominated former interim champ Tony Ferguson with his jiu-jitsu last year. It was the Brazilian's most impressive performance yet, and it was all the evidence we needed to determine he's one of the top lightweights. It also convinced me - regardless of whether this is true - that Oliveira can repeat that performance against just about every other lightweight in the promotion. I'm not hopping off that bandwagon now.
However, Chandler is far from a good matchup for Oliveira. With his wrestling background, the Sanford MMA product should be more successful at keeping the fight off the ground than many of Oliveira's past opponents. Oliveira has sharpened his striking in recent years, but Chandler is still better in that department on paper with a lot more power. If this is a stand-up fight, then it's Chandler's to lose.
This title clash could go either way. The key factor will be whether Oliveira can get Chandler to the ground consistently. I'm not sure if he will, but "Do Bronx" is difficult to deny with the eight-fight winning streak he brings into this matchup.
The pick: Oliveira, third-round submission
Lightweight bout
Tony Ferguson (25-5)
vs.
Beneil Dariush (20-4-1)
Talk about another tough one to call. Ferguson comes into this matchup riding the only two-fight skid of his career, and he's facing retirement questions. Dariush, meanwhile, has won six straight, but this is his toughest career test.
Ferguson looked bad during his losses to Justin Gaethje and Oliveira. He didn't seem like the same "El Cucuy" who won 12 consecutive fights from 2013 to 2019. He looked every bit of his age (37) and then some. This fight will come down to which Ferguson shows up.
If he returns to full or even partial form, Ferguson should be a little craftier than Dariush on his feet and able to get the job done. The former interim champ worked with renowned boxing trainer Freddie Roach during his camp, so his hands could be improved.
But if Ferguson is more washed up than we thought, look for Dariush to control him on the mat similar to Oliveira, or even land a big shot standing up and put him away.
My head says Dariush will end Ferguson's days as a contender, but my heart says Ferguson has more to give. I usually go with what my head tells me, but Ferguson is a maniac and I've never picked against him. That isn't going to change now.
The pick: Ferguson, unanimous decision
Featherweight bout
Shane Burgos (13-2)
vs.
Edson Barboza (21-9)
This matchup between Burgos and Barboza could be a barn burner.
Burgos is coming off a loss to Josh Emmett in a "Fight of the Year" candidate last June, while Barboza beat Makwan Amirkhani in his second appearance at 145 pounds this past October.
This will entirely be a stand-up clash, and it should be razor close. Burgos brings lots of volume to the table, as he lands an average of 7.31 significant strikes per minute, while Barboza will be the more technical striker. Barboza can unleash some of the most devastating leg kicks in the sport.
Burgos overwhelming Barboza with pressure and volume wouldn't be surprising, as the latter has struggled to fight off his back foot before. But I also expect Burgos to be a little more hittable than his veteran opponent.
In a pure striking battle, someone with Barboza's high skill level should be able to pick apart Burgos over three rounds.
The pick: Barboza, split decision
