UFC 249 best bets: Gaethje, Cerrone live underdogs
UFC 249 takes place Saturday night at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville. It will feature two title fights, including the main event between Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje for the interim lightweight belt.
Here are three of the best bets for UFC 249.
Justin Gaethje (+175) vs. Tony Ferguson
Ferguson and Gaethje are two of the wildest fighters in the UFC, so nothing would surprise me when they square off - and that's why a bet on the underdog makes sense.
Gaethje finished each of his last three opponents with strikes in the first round, and Ferguson hasn't won with a clean knockout since 2014. It's clear that Gaethje has more knockout power, and that will absolutely benefit him in this fight. "The Highlight" even admitted his best chance to upset Ferguson will come early in the bout, so there's a good chance he'll try to blitz "El Cucuy" in the first two rounds.
Ferguson hasn't lost in eight years, but he's been caught off guard before. Anthony Pettis and Lando Vannata both stunned him before eventually falling short. Ferguson isn't untouchable; it'll just take the right shot.
Gaethje has a good chance of landing that shot, as he has arguably the best pressure game in the lightweight division. The 31-year-old stalks his opponents and refuses to take a step backward until they wilt.
Ferguson's grappling game and bizarre style will make this an intriguing battle, and Gaethje stepping up on short notice is a bit concerning. But ultimately, Gaethje has enough going for him that he's worth betting on.
Donald Cerrone (+130) vs. Anthony Pettis
It's no secret Cerrone's and Pettis' careers are both on downward trajectories, but the fighter with more gas left in the tank is "Cowboy," and I like him for the slight upset here.
It's easy to look past Cerrone because he's lost three straight fights, but it's important to consider the level of competition. Ferguson, Gaethje, and Conor McGregor are three of the best 155-pound fighters in the world today. There's no shame in those defeats.
It was only just over a year ago that Cerrone dominated Al Iaquinta. A few months earlier, he destroyed rising prospect Alexander Hernandez. And a few months before that, he tapped out Mike Perry at a heavier weight class.
Pettis, a former UFC lightweight champion, is historically a better striker than Cerrone. But "Cowboy" is the grittier of the two, so the battles on the feet should be competitive. That said, if Cerrone does find himself in a less-than-ideal situation on the feet, he should be able to take down "Showtime" and do solid work on the ground.
For my money, "Cowboy" is still a top-10 lightweight. Pettis - who hasn't had a winning streak since 2014 - isn't quite there. Cerrone will edge out Pettis and avenge his 2013 defeat.
Ronaldo Souza (-125) vs. Uriah Hall
Update: Fight has been canceled after Souza tested positive for COVID-19 on Friday night.
Souza should be a bigger favorite against Hall than he is, so it's worth taking a stab at him.
"Jacare" is one of the best jiu-jitsu practitioners in the UFC, and Hall has struggled against grapplers in the past. In his first bout against Gegard Mousasi in 2015, for instance, Mousasi dominated on the ground for the entire first round before Hall scored a come-from-behind finish in the second.
There's been talk of Hall making significant improvements since moving his fight camps to the rising Fortis MMA gym in Texas. I don't doubt that "Prime Time" has been training hard, but stylistically, this isn't a good matchup for him. I think he's in for a rude awakening.
A crafty striker, Hall has a shot against Souza if he can keep the fight standing; it wouldn't be impossible for him to land a big shot and put Souza out. The Brazilian has been finished before, and his career appears to be on a downward trajectory.
The big question is whether Hall can keep it on the feet. It's virtually a guarantee that Souza will look to get his opponent to the mat, and there's a good chance he'll be successful. If "Jacare" gets the fight where he wants it, it'll only be a matter of time before he locks up a submission.